210
FXUS62 KILM 181139
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DENSE FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK, THE SLIGHTLY IMPLAUSIBLE WRF KEEPING
VISIBILITY LOWERED ALL DAY UNDER A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK. ASSUMING
THIS SOLUTION ISN'T CORRECT EXPECT SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND ANOTHER
WARM AFTERNOON. SEA FOG IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAINTAINED FOR MOST IF
NOT THE ENTIRE DAY AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN SO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE SSTS
IN A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PORTIONS OF BRUNSWICK AND HORRY
COUNTIES THAT KEEP ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW COULD STAY COOLER THAN THEIR
INLAND COUNTERPARTS AS WELL AS ANY AREAS THAT REMAIN SOCKED IN THE
CLOUDS. SOME GUIDANCE REFLECTS SOME "PATCHINESS" IN TODAY'S HIGHS.
THE WEATHER TURNS A BIT MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUDIEST SOLUTION THE WRF DEVELOPS
INSTABILITY, MORESO THAN OTHER MODELS. EITHER WAY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT MAKE A DENT IN OUR D1 DROUGHT STATUS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH FRI AND BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE SHIFTING THROUGH SE NC AND NE SC AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
DAY, LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING THROUGH
FRI/FRI NIGHT AND THIS COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
FRI EVE, ESPECIALLY IN NC CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH FRI BEFORE
DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*DRY W/ BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
MAIN STORY MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS AS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING PREVAILS ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST
ALLOWING A CANADIAN AIR MASS TO INVADE THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD GET
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER EACH PERIOD THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE SOME
MODERATION BEGINS TO OCCUR, ALTHOUGH STILL LIKELY STAYING BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUE. THE COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE SUN NIGHT WHEN THE
BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD SET UP, WITH INLAND AREAS
LIKELY DIPPING AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER TEENS. RECORD LOWS ARE IN THE
MID TEENS AND SHOULD BE SAFE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VERY SATURATED LOW LEVELS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF IFR/LIFR FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE DEGREE TO WHICH THESE FLIGHT CATEGORIES EASE
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN THEREAFTER BUT CURRENTLY CALLING FOR VFR.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS IFR (OR WORSE) CIGS AND
VSBYS RETURN THIS EVENING AS WILL A FEW SHOWERS. THE LATTER WILL
BE MUCH LESS OF THE FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTION-MAKERS AS THEY
SHOULD STAY LIGHT AND SCATTERED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES ARE NOTHING
EXTRAORDINARY THROUGH THE PERIOD SEA FOG WILL REPRESENT A
NAVIGATIONAL HAZARD. LIGHT SW FLOW HAS IMPORTED LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE SSTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS OR DEWPOINTS FOG SHOULD PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EVEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THE
DURATION OF LOWERED VSBYS HAS BEEN EXTENDED. THE DFA MAY NEED TO
BE LENGTHENED SOON ESP WITH THE AID OF VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS THU BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING SEA FOG AND MOST
OF THE RAIN AS WELL AS AN UPTICK IN WINDS/SEAS. MAY NEED A
BRIEF/MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LATE THU/THU NIGHT, A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND THIS COULD
PROMPT A SIMILAR SCA INTO EARLY SAT WITH YET ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE
EARLY SUN WHICH COULD PUSH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY CLOSE TO SCA
LEVELS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...RJB/MBB
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