879
FXUS62 KILM 191401
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
901 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND USHER
IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY
MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
UPDATE
AS OF 9 AM...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY; HOWEVER, RAINFALL CHANCES
HAVE DROPPED WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOW DISPLACED OFFSHORE.
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, AND THE PRIMARY UPDATE WAS TO
REMOVE POPS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLOUDS MAKING OVERLAND FOG HARDER TO FIND IN OBS AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. FALL-LIKE DEWPOINTS
ON THE OTHER HAND WILL KEEP SEA FOG PRESENT THROUGH DAYBREAK OR SO
AT WHICH TIME COLD FRONT (CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTER OF THE
CAROLINAS) SWEEPS THROUGH AND WIND TURNS TO THE NORTH WHILE
INCREASING IN SPEED. THE SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS THAT BUILDS IN WILL
BE LESS THAN 1-2KFT THICK. A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS IN THIS LAYER
TRAPPING MOISTURE KEEPING TODAY OVERCAST. THE MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE THE 'HIGHS' OF THE DAY AND WE'VE ALREADY
FALLEN A FEW DEGREES FROM THEM DIURNALLY, BUT MORE PRECIPITOUS DROPS
IN TEMPERATURE ARE SLATED FOR ALL DAY, TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOW 50S WHILE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 40S. THE NE SURGE REALLY
ABATES TONIGHT BUT CONTINUES NONETHELESS. AS IT IS OVERRUN WITH WARM
ADVECTION EXPECT FULL CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE WHILE LOWS SETTLE INTO
THE LOW 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF PENDER AND BLADEN
COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
IN THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST
COAST AND THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINA AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE 850H
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE OFF HATTERAS ON FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CONTINUING MOVING NORTH UP THE U.S. COAST. WILL BE HEAD
NORTH AND THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL START WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE
HATTERAS LOW PRESSURE AND DRYING OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 56 IN THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TO THE LOWER 60S OVER WILLIAMSBURG AND
GEORGETOWN COUNTIES. ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO 50
DEGREES. THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S AND THE COLDER AIR
REACHES THE ARE WITH LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20 INLAND AND
THE UPPER 20S AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE DEEP MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PULLING AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AS THE
PARENT HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AND THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ON SUNDAY AND MODERATING TO THE
50S BY TUESDAY AND LOWER 60S ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE. THE LOWS WILL MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT CONTINUES THE TAF
SITES WILL TRANSITION FROM THE MORE RANDOM MIX OF SEVERE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AND CEILINGS TO A MORE UNIFORM STRATUS DECK BENEATH
A CONSIDERABLY STRENGTHENING INVERSION. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE VERY SHALLOW SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OCCURS. HIGHER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO FAIL TO ADVECT
THIS FAR EAST. THE INVERSION MAY LOWER TONIGHT DROPPING CEILINGS
A BIT LOWER INTO THE IFR REALM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL
REINFORCING PUSH OF DEEP COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AND THEN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT, AS LIGHT SWRLY WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO WESTERLY
THE AMPLE SEA FOG ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH A FRONTAL-INDUCED SHIFT TO NORTHERLY CLOSE
TO SUNUP THE FOG WILL BE PUSHED RAPIDLY OUT TO SEA ESPECIALLY
GIVEN AN UPTICK IN WIND VELOCITY POST FROPA. THE CURRENT EXP
TIME OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY APPEARS ON TRACK. SEAS BRIEFLY
ATTAIN ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT IN HEIGHT LATER TODAY OVER ROUGHLY
HALF OF NC ZONES. AS SUCH PROBABLY COULD'VE EITHER RAISED OR NOT
RAISED HEADLINE BUT CHOSE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE WIND SHIFT WILL MAKE FOR A STEEPENING OF
WAVE FACES. N WINDS CONTINUE BUT ABATE TONIGHT, SEAS DOING THE
SAME, HEADLINES DROP OUT, THOUGH 6 FOOTERS MAY LURK JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE 20NM ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW DOMINATING SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WIND WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOTS RANGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING AND BECOME
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.
ON FRIDAY, SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET AND INCREASE TO 3 TO 5
FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW 6 FOOTERS 15 TO 20 MILES OFF THE
COAST. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HEIGHTS WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN 3 TO 4
FEET WITH LOWER HEIGHTS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTH FACING
BEACHES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SRP
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...ILM
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