433
FXUS62 KILM 210540
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1240 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. COLD
AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AS A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COULD LEAD
TO CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
VIGOROUS ENERGY PASSING THROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS THIS EVENING
COULD ENHANCE CLOUDINESS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. FAIRLY
DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8-10 KGRIDTAF_EXPFT SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AFTER
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS, SKIES WILL CLEAR AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE BIG EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REACH ITS GREATEST
AMPLITUDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
MONDAY, KEEPING A COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS STREAMING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THE WEEKEND.
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND, SATURDAY NIGHT'S LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING
THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME INLAND SPOTS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL REACH
THEIR NADIR AT -3 TO -6C. SUNDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID
40S WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. ALTHOUGH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION
WILL TECHNICALLY BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT, LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHARPER NOCTURNAL INVERSION
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EVENT WITH
LOWER 20S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 20S AT THE COAST. NORMAL COLD
SPOTS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DIVE INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE. ALONG WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR 50,DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALSO RECOVER FROM THE
TEENS TO THE 20S/30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS THE EAST COAST, A COASTAL TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPS A SHIELD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON ITS NORTH AND WEST SIDE.
AMONG THE 12Z GUIDANCE SET THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE QUICKEST
WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS PROCESS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND
PEAKING IN INTENSITY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
AND TAKES UNTIL CHRISTMAS DAY TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION NORTHWARGRIDTAF_EXPD. THE NWS MODEL BLEND (NBM)
DATASET WON'T INCORPORATE MUCH OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE UNTIL LATER
ON, SO I'VE MANUALLY ADDED SMALL POPS TUESDAY.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SMALL TO MODERATE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM TEXAS
TO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE EXIT OF ARCTIC AIR, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LAST OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT MID LEVEL
VORT MAX ARE EXITING THE AREA COINCIDING WITH THE SEEMINGLY
FINAL FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BECOME N BY SATURDAY EXCEPT SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE WINDS OF 20
KT WITH HIGHER GUTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYTIME
SATURDAY. NO FLAGS AS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT. SEAS
WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT TO NEW
ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE HERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 15-20
KT EXPECTED SUNDAY, BUT WITH A SHORT OFFSHORE FETCH SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EVEN OUT AT 20 MILES DISTANCE FROM SHORE.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY OUR WINDS SHOULD
VEER NORTHEASTERLY AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. A COASTAL TROUGH
SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR
DOWN TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS
WANT TO MAKE THIS COASTAL TROUGH A RATHER FORMIDABLE ENTITY
TUESDAY, COMPLETE WITH OFFSHORE WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AND
A CONSIDERABLE AREA OF RAIN ALONG AND INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH ITSELF. THE ECMWF DELAYS ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
CHRISTMAS DAY AT THE EARLIEST. REGARDLESS, DESPITE LIGHTER
OVERALL WINDS THE ODDS OF WET WEATHER APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
DESPITE THE COLD START TO DECEMBER THAT HAS THE MONTH'S AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE STILL A DEGREE F BELOW NORMAL, 2024 AS A WHOLE IS
SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE TOP TEN WARMEST YEARS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. ALL LOCAL CITIES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THEIR TOP FIVE FOR HIGHEST ANNUAL AVERAGE AIR TEMPERATURES AS OF
YESTERDAY DECEMBER 19:
WILMINGTON, NC - JAN 1 TO DEC 19
#1T 2020 66.9
#1T 1990 66.9
#1T 2023 66.9
#4T 2019 66.7
#4T *2024* 66.7 <-THIS YEAR
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC - JAN 1 TO DEC 19
#1 2020 67.1
#2 1990 66.7
#3T 1998 66.3
#3T *2024* 66.3 <-THIS YEAR
#5T 2017 66.2
#5T 2019 66.2
FLORENCE, SC - JAN 1 TO DEC 19
#1 1975 68.1
#2 1990 67.6
#3 1974 67.3
#4 1998 67.2
#5T 2020 67.0
#5T *2024* 67.0 <-THIS YEAR
LUMBERTON, NC - JAN 1 TO DEC 19
#1 1921 66.1
#2 *2024* 66.0 <-THIS YEAR
#3 1953 65.8
#4 2019 65.8
#5 1957 65.6
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...TRA/RH
LONG TERM...TRA/RH
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...TRA/31
CLIMATE...
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