429
FXUS62 KILM 211123
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
623 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COULD LEAD
TO CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NORTHWEST/CYCLONIC FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFFSHORE.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BATTLE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY BUT WITH A
RELATIVELY WARM START (TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S)
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S OR SO. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S WITH A LITTLE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
PRECLUDING IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY MORNING. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SEE
A LOW-AMPLITUDE 500 MB TROUGH SHIFT TO THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SHARP GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE, COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ENVELOP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN US SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MID
20S SUNDAY NIGHT. DECOUPLED WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
OFF THE SC COAST. MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY BELOW 700 MB
MONDAY NIGHT, AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS TRENDING TOWARD
INCREASING POPS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER
NE SC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE SC COAST
TUESDAY, PASSING CAPE FEAR AS IT MAKES ITS WAY UP THE NC COAST
WEDNESDAY. AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST COAST
LATE WEEK, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHALLOW NE FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS NOT VERY GOOD WITH THE POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, IT SEEMS MAINTAINING A SMALL
POP WOULD BE PRUDENT FOR WHAT WOULD LIKELY BE LOW RAINFALL
TOTALS IF ANY PRECIP MANAGES TO MATERIALIZE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS ENVELOPED THE COASTAL
WATERS AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE IN A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS BASICALLY THROUGH TONIGHT PERHAPS LEANING A
LITTLE HIGHER INSIDE THE RANGE LATE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
2-4 FEET. MATCHING UP WITH THE WINDS A FEW FIVE FOOTERS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NNE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15
KT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NE US. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE TROUGH AXIS SETS UP, WINDS MAY VARY BETWEEN
NNE AND ENE UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA WATERS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, NE
FLOW REESTABLISHES AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND INTO INTERIOR NC AND SC. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH, WITH CHANCES PEAKING ON
TUESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/CRM
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