414
FXUS62 KILM 142040
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
340 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WINDS GROW LIGHTER AND BACK IN DIRECTION TONIGHT AS A POORLY DEFINED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
AROUND DAYBREAK VEERING WINDS BACK TO NORTHERLY BUT WITHOUT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF INCREASED OBSERVED SPEEDS. EVEN SO THE CAA FOLLOWING THE
BOUNDARY WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S, SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL SPEND THE DAY IN THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST AS WE
DEAL WITH WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE NEAR TERM FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE TEENS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTH BUT OTHERWISE THE NIGHTTIME
SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH LITTLE WIND, COLD SPOTS POSSIBLY COOLING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. THURSDAY WE'LL SEE THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS
ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND DECENT WAA THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE BY NIGHTTIME, LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
INCREASED WARMING AND RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS WE SIT IN MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DEEP WAA AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO NEAR 1-1.5".
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SOME DRYNESS COULD BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE GULF, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ON WHEN IT WILL
ARRIVE. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF NON-LIQUID PRECIP TUESDAY AS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MEETS INCREASED MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
INTERESTING!
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. FM GROUPS ONLY NEEDED TO ADDRESS WINDS
BACKING AND GROWING LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
THEN RESUMING BACK TO N OR NW EARLY WED BEHIND IT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH RAIN AND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT BACKING
WINDS FROM THEIR CURRENT NWRLY DIRECTION. THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH WITH LITTLE OTHER THAN ANOTHER DIRECTION CHANGE, THIS TIME
TO NORTHERLY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY WINDS COULD STILL DEVELOP
WHEREAS THE OFFSHORE FETCH KEEPS SEAS BELOW THRESHOLDS. NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT EXISTING HEADLINE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO START
OUT WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS THURSDAY DUE TO A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT, POSSIBLE INFREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS.
LIGHTER/VARIABLE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY
WITH 10- 15 KT SW FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT
EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING
DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING WINDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/LEW
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