978
FXUS62 KILM 151741
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1241 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL DO
LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE WIND CHILLS IN THE MID 30S DUE TO GUSTS AROUND
20 MPH TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OR CALM LATER IN THE DAY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT WILL SEE MOST OF THE AREA DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH
ISOLATED COLD SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON THU SHIFTS EAST FRI AS SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THU
MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE LARGER SCALE 5H TROUGH. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND, PRECIPITABLE WATER STRUGGLES TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 0.30" BY END
OF THU, SO DESPITE COOLING ALOFT DO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CLOUD
COVER. THE TROUGHS WILL KICK UP WINDS A BIT, LEADING TO A BREEZY
DAY, BUT WINDS HAVE A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION, PUSHING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A WEAK, DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRI. REGION WILL BE IN A WEAK COLD TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION REGIME
WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS SIMILAR TO THU. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION
LATE FRI NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL PUSH LOWS FRI NIGHT A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LARGE 5H LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT COMBO SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO SAT THROUGH SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
WARMER THAN SOME OF THE RECENT HIGHS, MID TO UPPER 40S. MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE COAST LATER SUN. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON RETURNING
TEMPERATURES BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
TUE. HAVE TUE DRY FOR NOW, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL SELECTION OF
GUIDANCE THAT DOES BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATER IN
THE DAY TUE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LATE TUE WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES TUE NIGHT. IT IS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST, AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS IS
LOW, BUT IT IS WORTH A MENTION.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. FM GROUPS ONLY NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE NW
WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO AROUND SUNSET AND WIND RESUMING OUT
OF THE SW TOMORROW LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH RAIN AND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3-4 FEET WILL
STEADILY IMPROVE THROUGH SUNSET, BECOMING AROUND 1-2 FEET
TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AROUND 5-10
KNOTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THU WITH SPEEDS ON THE HIGH END OF
THE 15-20 KT RANGE. WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
EARLY FRI WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. POST FRONT GRADIENT IS
ON THE WEAK SIDE AND FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES NORTHEAST AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS SAT
AND CONTINUES SUN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LIMITED ENHANCEMENT OF THE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS UNDER 20
KT. FRONT PASSES LATER SUN WITH ENHANCED OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
THU AND AGAIN SAT INTO SUN WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SEAS.
SHORTER DURATION OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THU WILL KEEP SEAS 3- 5
FT, BUT PROLONGED PERIOD SAT INTO SUN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
SEAS 4-6 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MBB
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...III/21
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