800
FXUS62 KILM 152335
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND. COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM MID NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING SOME WINTRY
WEATHER.
UPDATE
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR A CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT. UPDATED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
THOUGH MODEL SPREAD IN TONIGHT'S LOWS ISN'T OVERLY LARGE THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW IDEALIZED A RADIATIONAL COOLING
(RC) SETUP MATERIALIZES. FORECAST SOUNDS DO SHOW A SHARP SURFACED-
BASED INVERSION, WHICH IS A SIGNATURE OF RC, BUT THEY LACK THE DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER USUALLY FOUND ABOVE THE INVERSION ON THE COLDEST OF
WINTER NIGHTS. AS SUCH DID BLEND IN SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE BUT
DID NOT UTILIZE FULLY. MOST AREAS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S
COAST, UPPER TEENS INLAND; THE OCEAN'S INFLUENCE AT THE BEACHES
MINIMIZED BY A WEAK LAND BREEZE. OUR LOCAL RC TOOL PLUNGES THE
POCOSIN SOIL LOCALES INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW
PRESSURE IN HUDSON BAY, CANADA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW ALLOWING THE AREA TO WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 50S, JUST A FEW
SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
*DRY W/ MILDER BUT STILL MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SE NC/NE SC
THU NIGHT INTO FRI COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL MAINLY JUST ACT TO SWITCH
OUR WINDS TO NORTHERLY AGAIN WITH NO BIG TEMP/DEWPOINT CHANGES
ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN FRI BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM STARTS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE PEE DEE
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/FORCING START TO INCREASE BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY STARTING MON NIGHT
*WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE STARTING TUE
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH MON NIGHT
*LOW TUE THROUGH WED
DETAILS: NO BIG CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE AS THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WHICH
COULD BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY BRINGING SOME
DECENT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN START BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVING AROUND A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
TOWARD MID WEEK. WE MAINTAINED LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT GIVEN
THE COLD TEMPS WE ALSO HAD TO MAINTAIN SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WOULD MORE
LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN ABOVE THE
SURFACE WHICH WOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW,
SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. EITHER WAY THOUGH, UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
STARTING MON NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT N WINDS BECOMING CALM AND THEN PICKING UP OUT
OF THE SW ON THU MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH RAIN AND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... NORTHERLY WINDS GROW LIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. TOMORROW WIND TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE FLOW
THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE ALL THE WAY UP NORTH OVER HUDSON BAY,
CANADA. A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NOT OVER ENOUGH OF THE FORECAST ZONES TO
WARRANT THE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO FRI BRINGING A BIT OF A WIND SURGE TO
THE LOCAL WATERS, POSSIBLY NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
GENERALLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A STORM
SYSTEM STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT.
COULD SEE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY SAT
NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RJB/MBB
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