140
FXUS62 KILM 172337
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN BACK
TO THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SLOW AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES,
AS TEMPERATURES WARMED UP TO THE LOW-TO-MID 50S. WHILE STILL BELOW
NORMAL, THIS IS MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY (NOT
THAT THIS WILL LAST LONG...SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THAT,
BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE REALLY HERE FOR ANYWAY).
TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE. ESE
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CALM (OR AT THE VERY LEAST, BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE) AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WSW, AIDED BY A DEEPENING LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO BRING IN MORE WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN AFTER
SUNSET, GRADUALLY THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND, UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT THE
COAST. THIS WILL BE 8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
SATURDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE
WSW, WHILE A GULF LOW AT THE SURFACE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS PUMPS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE COLUMN, INTRODUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. RAIN EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST, AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 285-295K LAYER (EVEN UP TO
300K IN SOME SPOTS). HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*MILD THROUGH SUN W/ SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL
*DRIER BUT MUCH COLDER SUN NIGHT W/ WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW 15
DEGREES POSSIBLE WELL INLAND
*VERY LOW RISK OF SOME BLACK ICE LATE SUN NIGHT
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEGINNINGS OF A VERY COLD PERIOD START
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS DOWN NEAR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA (15 DEGREES) AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I-95. ALSO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RISK FOR SOME
BLACK ICE TO DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS LATE SUN NIGHT IF THEY REMAIN
WET WHILE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGHLIGHTS:
*WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ NEAR RECORD
LOWS AT TIMES MID WEEK, INCLUDING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY FOR SOME
*WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED AND AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI
CONFIDENCE:
*MON-MON NIGHT: MODERATE TO HIGH
*TUE-FRI: MODERATE TO HIGH REGARDING TEMPS; LOW REGARDING
PRECIPITATION
DETAILS: NO BIG CHANGES WITH THE LATEST FORECAST ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE LITTLE BY LITTLE AS MODELS ARE A BIT MORE
IN AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA TUE INTO WED TO BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, IT'S
TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS SNOW AMOUNTS SINCE IT'S STILL 3+ DAYS AWAY,
ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER, SOME
MIXTURE OF WINTRY WEATHER TYPES (SNOW, SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN)
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR MOVES IN
ABOVE THE SURFACE. DRY, BUT COLD, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD
BACK IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK BRINGING THE RISK FOR MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION (MORE LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN
THOUGH GIVEN THE WARMER AIR ALOFT).
WE ARE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT THOUGH ABOUT THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, AT LEAST THROUGH THU. IT'S
EVEN POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS COULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN FORECAST (INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS) AS MOS GUIDANCE IS TYPICALLY NOT AS REPRESENTATIVE IN
SUCH AN ABNORMAL PATTERN AND THEY DON'T ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER. WE
ALSO WANT TO POINT OUT THAT SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY INLAND, COULD SEE
TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD (ON THE ORDER OF
DAYS) SO WINTER SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED PRIOR TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
SUN NIGHT WELL INLAND BUT MORE LIKELY EVERYWHERE MUCH OF THE TIME
FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WE COULD EVEN SEE
CONDITIONS NEAR EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA FOR SOME INLAND AREAS,
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THEN
TREND DOWN INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR IN SOME PLACES LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND BROAD SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH RAIN AND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. VFR RETURNS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COMES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHERE A GULF LOW
MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...ESE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS BECOME MORE VARIABLE
BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF NNE BREEZE BUILDS IN
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
EVENING. SEAS STAY AT 1-2 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE
CONCERNS THROUGH SAT NIGHT, ALTHOUGH WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOING DOWNHILL LATER SAT NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AND AGAIN STARTING TUE. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RJB/IGB
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