004
FXUS62 KILM 200556
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1256 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL COME LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER MAY AFFECT THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE
RAIN-FREE AND FEATURE A GRADUAL WARMUP TOWARDS MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR CLEARING AND COOLING. ONLY A FEW PATCHES
OF STRATO CU LEFT WHICH WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 06Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
DEDICATED TO DR. CHUCK DOSWELL, A PIONEER IN SUPERCELL AND TORNADO
RESEARCH, AND ONE OF THE BRIGHTEST MINDS THAT METEOROLOGY EVER
PRODUCED. THANK YOU.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE, CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF VIRGINIA BEACH.
AFTER PASSING THROUGH THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA THIS MORNING, THE LOW'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOW KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO THIN OUT IN THIS AREA, AND ALL LAYERS OF THE GOES-16
WATER VAPOR CHANNELS ARE SHOWING OFF THE DRY ARCTIC AIR NICELY.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER SUNSET. VERY DRY AIR AND STOUT
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SETTLE INTO THE AREA. AFTER
SOME SPOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST HIT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CRASH TONIGHT, NEARING A 40-
DEGREE SWING IN SOME CASES. LOWS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 20S INLAND,
NEAR 30 AT THE COAST. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S, BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY CREEPS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY. THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DECREASES SLIGHTLY, BUT THE BIGGER
STORY IS THE BITTERLY COLD AIR OFFICIALLY LOCKS ITSELF IN AT THIS
POINT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION (SEE
THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS BELOW). UNTIL THEN, LOOK
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S INLAND,
NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. THIS IS ABOUT 17-18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID-LATE JANUARY. THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA IS POTENTIALLY AT RISK FOR
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES, THOUGH I ULTIMATELY THINK THOSE
RECORDS ARE SAFE, GIVEN THE (WEAK) SOLAR INSOLATION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH NIGHTS APPEAR CANDIDATES FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS
APPARENT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS. SIMILARLY HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE MID 30S, SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. THE LESS CERTAIN ASPECT OF THE LATE PERIOD WEATHER IS
THE PROSPECT OF WINTRY PRECIP. IT IS UNUSUAL FOR US TO HAVE COLD AIR
LOCKED IN WELL ENOUGH THAT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SNOW IS EXPECTED, ITS
JUST VERY UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WILL FALL. SADLY, THE MORNING SUITE OF
GUIDANCE HASN'T BOLSTERED CONFIDENCE MUCH. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS THAT RANGE FROM LITTLE TO NOTHING AREA-WIDE AND SOME THAT
HAVE ALMOST 3 INCHES HERE ALONG THE COAST. THE FORECAST SNOWFALL HAS
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS BISECTS THE CWA
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE 1" LINE RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE, AND 1-2"
ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND MOST OF THE SNOW
BEING OUTSIDE OF 48HRS THE DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE AREA STILL FIRMLY IN THE ICY GRIP OF THE ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY,
AND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE EVEN COLDER THAN FORECAST
DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER, IF ANY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMS
LIKELY AGAIN AT NIGHT. THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CAUSE
PRESSURES TO FALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY (MORESO THAN DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD ACCORDING TO SOME MODELS) AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE, AT LEAST OF THE FRONT END BEFORE WARM
AIR OVERTAKES THE COLD. THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD REMAIN RAIN-
FREE WITH A GRADUAL TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
N-NW WINDS SHOULD SETTLE TO AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF PATCHES OF LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...NEXT CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COMES
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHERE A GULF LOW LIKELY BRINGS
A BIT OF SNOW TO THE AREA. BACK TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD CAUSE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THEIR PEAK AT 3-4 FT AT THE COAST, AND UP TO
6-7 FT 20 NM FROM SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ALBEIT THE FRIGID AIR STICKS AROUND. BY THE
AFTERNOON, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CLOCK IN AT 10-15 KTS AND SEAS COME
DOWN TO 1-3 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD KEEPING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND
WAVE PERIODS DECREASING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
CHILLY AIRMASS AND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE
STRENGTHENING LOW HEADS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FLOW TURNS
OFFSHORE LOCALLY AND SOME NE BACKSWELL WILL BE DEVELOPING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HEADLINES TO BE LOWERED LATE IN THE PERIOD, THOUGH SEAS
WILL HAVE TROUBLE FALLING MUCH BELOW A 3-5FT RANGE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...ILM
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