300
FXUS62 KILM 210224
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
924 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVERRUNS THIS COLD
AIRMASS A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES THURSDAY, WHICH COULD START AND/OR END AS
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
OVERALL GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID
TWEAK MIN TEMPS UP A SMIDGEN BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO
DELAYED ONSET OF CLOUDS BY AN HOUR OR TWO OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAST BIT OF QUIET WEATHER WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE BEING COLD WEATHER
TONIGHT DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS OUT FOR WIND CHILLS ABOUT 6 ABOVE 0 DUE TO NORTH WINDS
TONIGHT PAIRED WITH LOWS LARGELY IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER MORE TOWARDS DAWN FROM SW TO NE SHOULD
INHIBIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND PERHAPS CAP LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S FOR COASTAL NE SC. REGARDLESS, MAKE SURE TO TAKE THE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS DUE TO THE COLD. TOMORROW WILL SEE SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER BUT COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHERE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL START TO FILL IN LATE TUESDAY. SPOTTY SNOW SHOULD START
TO FILL IN BY THEN FROM THE SW, WITH SOME LOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AFTER A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND IN EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS YESTERDAY,
TODAY'S GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER. CONFIDENCE HAS THUS
GROWN ENOUGH THAT WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH (WARNING
CRITERIA BEING 2") FOR OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS WILLIAMSBURG
AND COLUMBUS COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BUT GIVEN THE LESSER LEAD TIME AND THE REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INLAND SNOW HELD OFF ON THAT HEADLINE FOR
NOW. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL
ZONES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS ARCTIC SHOT
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING ONLY INTO THE MID 30S, SOME 20 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO. WENT A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE
ASSUMPTION BEING THAT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE SNOW COVER. MOST
PLACES, EVEN THE BEACHES SHOULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. OUR CHILLY
SPOTS WITH POCOSIN SOIL IN PARTS OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES
COULD DROP BELOW 10 ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE CHILLIER NBM
PERCENTILES. ALSO DIDN'T WANT TO GO THAT COLD AS IT WILL HINGE
UPON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS INCREASE, AND WITH HOW DRY IT IS
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO FAST. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL BUT NON- ZERO
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT ONCE AGAIN GIVEN HOW DRY THE SURFACE
LAYER WILL BE THIS SEEMS DOUBTFUL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING OFFSHORE GRADUALLY THURSDAY WHILE SOME
GRADUAL WARMING OCCURS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS COULD FAVOR A
WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WITH THE DAY STARTING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TEENS THIS PRECIP SHOULD DISAPPEAR AS VIRGA IF IT EVEN MATERIALIZES
AT ALL. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME IN THE AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME
WE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S. LASTLY THE LIGHT RAIN COULD END AS A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY ONWARD STILL
LOOKING DRY AND WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT'S
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AFT ABOUT 21Z COASTAL
TERMINALS AND THERE EVEN COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, THE
BULK OF ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT N TO
NE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KT
AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...NEXT CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COMES
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHERE A GULF LOW LIKELY BRINGS
A BIT OF SNOW TO THE AREA. BACK TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD CAUSE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN NW TO NE FLOW
OVER THE WATERS INCREASING TO NEAR 15-20 KTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME INFREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT THEY'LL PICK
UP OUTSIDE OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM PAIRED
WITH AN INCREASE IN WAVEHEIGHTS. SPEAKING OF WHICH, SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO SHORE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA. WAVES 2-4 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... GRADIENT GETS TIGHTENED BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH TO THE WEST AND
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT SOME RATHER UNUSUAL SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO SOME MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE THOSE
ALREADY PROVIDED BY IT BEING DARK. ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHORT- LIVED HOWEVER AS THE APPROACHING
HIGH PUSHES THE STRONGER GRADIENT OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER LOW RUNS
UP THE COAST THURSDAY, BECOMING MUCH MORE WELL DEFINED ON
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY NOT RETURN BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN WITH THE INITIAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
SETUP. SOME BACKSWELL WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD
FROM THIS DEPARTING LOW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR SCZ039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...ILM
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