112
FXUS62 KILM 160644
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A VERY LOW RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY. DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR UPDATES UNTIL PAST MIDNIGHT WHERE THE POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON MODEL/RADAR TRENDS. UPDATED 06Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WELL- AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECEDING THIS TROUGH, WEAK IMPULSES LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL LEAD TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND PASSING
SHOWERS, MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE IMPULSES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT AWAY BETWEEN 07- 10Z TONIGHT, LEAVING MOSTLY
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LOW TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPS GO STEADY, THEN RISE
SLOWLY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, AMIDST A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING
(E.G., 925MB WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM AROUND 50 KTS AT 12Z TO 60-70
KTS AROUND 16Z) WILL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45-50MPH REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIME
PERIOD. WHILE STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE JET, DEBRIS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT
INSOLATION AND PREVENT FULLY MIXING DOWN THOSE WINDS. BETWEEN
ABOUT 15-18Z, A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH WITH THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS OF THE DAY EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT; SOME SPOTS MAY SEE
GUSTS REACH AROUND 60MPH AS THIS LINE PUSHES THROUGH. AS LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE HEAVY SHOWERS EXITS AND SKIES CLEAR,
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL ARISE DURING THE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RAPIDLY STEEPEN DUE TO
INSOLATION. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE
JET MOVES OFFSHORE, SO THE CEILING FOR GUSTS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NEVERTHELESS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WILL BE
CARRIED THROUGH THE DAY AS GUSTS REACHING 45-50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE MIDDAY LINE OF CONVECTION.
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 70S, ALTHOUGH WHEN THE
PEAK TEMPS OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON HOW RAPIDLY THE LINE PUSHES
THROUGH AND HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR BEHIND IT. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 70F BEFORE THE LINE ARRIVES, WESTERN
AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REACH 70F BEHIND IT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT. REMAINING BREEZY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
UPPER 20S. CLEAR SKIES ON MONDAY WITH A MUCH DIFFERENT AIR MASS
IN PLACE, HIGHS ABOUT 10 BELOW THE NORMAL HIGH. CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, POSSIBLE LOWER IN
LOW-LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GRADUAL WARMING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY WILL
PRECEDE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
WEDNESDAY, CREATING A CAD WEDGE. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
AND WEAK ENERGY ALOFT CREATES ADDITIONAL LIFT, RAIN WILL SPREAD
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AT THIS STAGE, TEMPERATURES APPEAR TOO WARM
FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HINT THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY BE CLOSE TO FREEZING AT ONSET. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALSO
AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS, IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND ACCRETION
OF FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MINIMAL.
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD
BE FREEZING RAIN, BUT THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A POSSIBLE
ENDING AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LIGHT PRECIP RATES MEAN THAT
ANY ACCUMULATION IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
A DRY AND COLD AIR MASS FOLLOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MULTIPLE RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD INCLUDING
DIMINISHED CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER,
WIND GUSTS ~40 KTS, AND LLWS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THE LLJ. CIG/VSBYS MVFR OR LOWER ARE
MOST LIKELY AND SHOULD LINGER LONGEST AT INLAND TERMINALS DUE TO
MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE A BIT OF A
LULL AFTER DAWN UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW TO SE 15-18Z. THIS WILL BRING SSW WINDS
GUSTING ~40 KTS, 50-60 KTS OF LLWS, AND ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER
STORMS COULD MIX DOWN EVEN STRONGER GUSTS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS CLEARING FOR INLAND TERMINALS
~18Z AND ~20Z FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY... EXPECT DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT, LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS REACHING SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT, THEN GALE CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS OVER THE
CHILLY SHELF WATERS, PATCHY SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A BAND
OF GUSTY SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY
TO MID-AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY
STRONG GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK TOMORROW AROUND MIDDAY IN THE RANGE OF 6-11 FT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS WINDS VEER TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPEEDS DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY. THE
WAVE SPECTRUM IS EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASING PERIOD FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 6 SEC EARLY TONIGHT TO SOUTHERLY AT 9 SEC LATE
TOMORROW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW THE GALE WARNING ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS CONDITIONS
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT, WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AS WIND WAVES GRADUALLY
IMPROVE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT, A
DEVELOPING LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SEE ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...21/ABW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page