679
FXUS62 KILM 161527
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1027 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH RAIN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HOISTED FOR NC AREAS EAST OF I-95
AS INTENSE WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION
WHILE THE PEE DEE PORTION OF THE LINE IS BREAKING UP AND
WEAKENING.
MAIN UPDATES WERE TO ADJUST POPS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RADAR
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
SQUALL LINE PROGRESSES RAPIDLY EASTWARD. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
WILL REMAIN A HAZARD AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. AFTER A TEMPORARY LULL IN
WINDS DURING THE STRATIFORM RAIN FOLLOWING THE BRIEF HEAVY
SHOWERS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE, THE SUN SHOULD COME BACK OUT
AND PERMIT ADDITIONAL STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ITS POSSIBLE THAT
HIGH TEMPS NEARER TO THE COAST WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE WARM FRONT IS THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ONGOING FROM SW
TO NE. S/SW WINDS ARE GUSTING 20-30 KTS, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AS THE LLJ BUILDS TOWARDS THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GUSTING 30-40 KTS, AND EVEN IN EXCESS OF
40 KTS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES A DECAYING SQUALL LINE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THAT BY 12Z, 60-70 KT WINDS WILL BE AT 925 MB (~1 KM
ABOVE THE SURFACE). GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKAGE IN THE
LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH, BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND 60-70 KT WINDS BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SURFACE, THERE IS A
NON-ZERO DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE AREA AND WE REMAIN IN A
MARGINAL (THREAT 1 OF 5) RISK. THE LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME
POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY, WITH A TRANSITION TO
TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST AROUND
18-20Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST BY NIGHT TIME. A
SECOND SURGE OF NW FLOW COULD YIELD SOME CLOUDS AROUND MIDNIGHT,
BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE, AND WE SHOULD SEE
CLEARING DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRY, COLD AIR
POOLS IN. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY, REVOLVING AROUND THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW I HAVE LARGELY UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S OVER THE AREA, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALSO AT OUR SOUTH-
FACING COASTLINE DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE COOLER WATER. TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LOWS COULD DROP TO NEAR FREEZING AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HOW LONG THE WINDS HOLD ON AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR
OVERNIGHT WILL AFFECT THESE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
QUIET YET CHILLY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S MONDAY INCREASE TO THE
MID/UPR 50S TUESDAY AS CAA ENDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A LOW PASSING JUST OFFSHORE, BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THERE'S NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR COLD AIR TO BE
LOCKED IN PLACE. MODERATE RAIN (90% POPS) FORECASTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN WHEN THE RAIN IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, AND STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW (NO
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED) MIXING IN OVER NORTHERN AREAS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BEFORE IT QUICKLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY
THURSDAY. STRONG CAA TO END THE WEEK MEANS HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY (TEMPS BELOW 15F) THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LESS CONFIDENT ON RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS THE
LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS MOVING MUCH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, BUT SOME FORM OF MVFR/IFR SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH
ABOUT 18-20Z. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DUE TO CIGS, BUT BRIEF
LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH GUSTS ~40 KTS AND LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD DUE THE STRONG LLJ AND LATER THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE FRONT IS LOOKING FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IF IT CONTINUES ON THIS TRACK, INLAND
TERMINALS COULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AROUND 15-16Z, AND
COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 18-19Z. THIS IS A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY RESTRICTION FREE, BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
SCATTERED CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLD AIR. COVERAGE WILL BE THE ISSUE, BUT TERMINALS COULD SEE
MVFR WITH THIS FEATURE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER INTO THIS MORNING AS S/SW WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTS OVER THE WATERS WILL REACH
GALE FORCE, WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 7-11 FT. SOME SEA FOG THIS
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED THUNDER THAT WILL PUSH OVER THE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
WILL START TO IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE, WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND LINGERING 6 FT SEAS LIKELY MEETING SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING
THE COLD FROPA. LOW CONFIDENCE THEN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS TO WHETHER SCA CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE, AS A LOT DEPENDS ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. FOR
NOW, STRONGEST WINDS (~20 KT SUSTAINED) APPEAR TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MAS/LEW
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