247
FXUS62 KILM 161827
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
127 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
UPDATE
THE SQUALL LINE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE WITH LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF AS THEY SHIFT OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. MEANWHILE, CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING
WITH NOTABLE CLOUD BREAKS ALREADY GETTING INTO THE PEE DEE
REGION NEAR I-95. AS THE SUN BREAKS OUT AND HEATING HELPS TO
STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO AROUND
45MPH. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SHIFTING AWAY, THE
MAX POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN A WIND ADVISORY AS GUSTS MAY STILL REACH
CRITERIA UNTIL PEAK HEATING HAS PASSED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE WARM FRONT IS THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ONGOING FROM SW
TO NE. S/SW WINDS ARE GUSTING 20-30 KTS, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AS THE LLJ BUILDS TOWARDS THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE GUSTING 30-40 KTS, AND EVEN IN EXCESS OF
40 KTS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES A DECAYING SQUALL LINE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THAT BY 12Z, 60-70 KT WINDS WILL BE AT 925 MB (~1 KM
ABOVE THE SURFACE). GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME BREAKAGE IN THE
LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH, BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND 60-70 KT WINDS BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SURFACE, THERE IS A
NON-ZERO DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE AREA AND WE REMAIN IN A
MARGINAL (THREAT 1 OF 5) RISK. THE LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME
POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY, WITH A TRANSITION TO
TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE COAST AROUND
18-20Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST BY NIGHT TIME. A
SECOND SURGE OF NW FLOW COULD YIELD SOME CLOUDS AROUND MIDNIGHT,
BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE, AND WE SHOULD SEE
CLEARING DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRY, COLD AIR
POOLS IN. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY, REVOLVING AROUND THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW I HAVE LARGELY UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S OVER THE AREA, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALSO AT OUR SOUTH-
FACING COASTLINE DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE COOLER WATER. TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LOWS COULD DROP TO NEAR FREEZING AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HOW LONG THE WINDS HOLD ON AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR
OVERNIGHT WILL AFFECT THESE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
QUIET YET CHILLY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S MONDAY INCREASE TO THE
MID/UPR 50S TUESDAY AS CAA ENDS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A LOW PASSING JUST OFFSHORE, BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THERE'S NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR COLD AIR TO BE
LOCKED IN PLACE. MODERATE RAIN (90% POPS) FORECASTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN WHEN THE RAIN IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, AND STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW (NO
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED) MIXING IN OVER NORTHERN AREAS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BEFORE IT QUICKLY PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY
THURSDAY. STRONG CAA TO END THE WEEK MEANS HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN
THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY (TEMPS BELOW 15F) THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE SQUALL LINE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
WITH VFR ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS MAY SKIRT THROUGH THE TERMINALS BEFORE THE CLEARING
ARRIVES, BUT THESE SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO REMAIN A HAZARD AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY INLAND. MEANWHILE, LINGERING FAST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LLWS A CONCERN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE CORE OF THE LOW- LEVEL JET
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN ARC OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THESE WILL
REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. OTHERWISE, DRY AIR FILTERING
IN AND STEADY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
DESPITE WET GROUND. GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET AND EVENTUALLY ABATE OVERNIGHT, WITH STEADY NW FLOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD BENEATH CLEAR
SKIES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PERSISTING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE VFR RETURNS LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER INTO THIS MORNING AS S/SW WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTS OVER THE WATERS WILL REACH
GALE FORCE, WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 7-11 FT. SOME SEA FOG THIS
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED THUNDER THAT WILL PUSH OVER THE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
WILL START TO IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE, WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND LINGERING 6 FT SEAS LIKELY MEETING SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING
THE COLD FROPA. LOW CONFIDENCE THEN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS TO WHETHER SCA CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE, AS A LOT DEPENDS ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. FOR
NOW, STRONGEST WINDS (~20 KT SUSTAINED) APPEAR TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MAS/LEW
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