313
FXUS62 KILM 162110
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
410 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
UPDATE
GALE WARNING HAS TRANSITIONED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS VEER TO THE W AND SUBSIDE INTO THIS
EVENING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS JUST FINISHED SHIFTING OFFSHORE WHILE GUSTY
WSW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN. AS
THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS WITH THE JET SHIFTING AWAY, EXPECT
THE WINDS AND ESPECIALLY THE GUSTS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY POPPING UP ALONG IT AND TRACKING ESEWRD. A BAND
OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH WINDS BECOMING WNW AND
SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL
SWING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S BY
THE END OF THE NIGHT.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY EXIT
STAGE RIGHT WITH THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL TOMORROW. NEVERTHELESS,
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ITS CENTER IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA WITH BELOW- NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED TOMORROW DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S ARE
EXPECTED WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW AT 5-10 KTS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
CLEAR AND A BIT CHILLY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE
START OF THE DAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE
TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION IN CAD. THIS WEDGE OF SHALLOW
COLD AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY (WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP TO OUR NORTH). LOWS IN THE MID
30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW FOLLOWS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
APPROACHES THE CAROLINA COAST, IT WILL PASS JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-FREEZING PRECIPITATION
AT ONSET. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAXIMIZED BY THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE FROM
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND
UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
RAPIDLY COOL THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. DURING THIS TIME, THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION, BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE AND HOW FAR
OFFSHORE THE LOW WILL TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, AN EXITING LOW
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN DRIER AIR INFILTRATING BEFORE COLD AIR CAN
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROZEN PRECIP. ALL OF THIS TO SAY:
FROZEN PRECIP APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND ANY THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT AND
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE IMPACTS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLES HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
ALONG A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
ANY EVENTUALITY RESULTING IN PRECIP. HOWEVER, NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND NEARSHORE DISTURBANCES WILL COMMAND OUR
ATTENTION OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE SQUALL LINE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
WITH VFR ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS MAY SKIRT THROUGH THE TERMINALS BEFORE THE CLEARING
ARRIVES, BUT THESE SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO REMAIN A HAZARD AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY INLAND. MEANWHILE, LINGERING FAST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LLWS A CONCERN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE CORE OF THE LOW- LEVEL JET
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN ARC OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THESE WILL
REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. OTHERWISE, DRY AIR FILTERING
IN AND STEADY WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING
DESPITE WET GROUND. GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET AND EVENTUALLY ABATE OVERNIGHT, WITH STEADY NW FLOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD BENEATH CLEAR
SKIES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PERSISTING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE VFR RETURNS LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY... DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE, WITH GALE
CONDITIONS COMING TO AN END NOW AND SCA CONDITIONS ENDING BY
LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY FIRST, THEN GRADUALLY
VEERING TO NWRLY BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
FOLLOW SUIT, DECREASING THROUGH TOMORROW INTO THE 2-3 FT RANGE
LATE IN THE DAY, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LINGERING SERLY 8-9 SEC
SWELLS.
BLOWOUT TIDES FALLING TO OR BELOW -1.0 FT MLLW ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH THE UPCOMING LOW TIDE. THIS COULD MAKE NAVIGATION DIFFICULT
ON NEARSHORE TIDAL WATERWAYS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS
ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TURN EASTERLY ON TUESDAY. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, A DEVELOPING LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SEE ONSHORE
WINDS INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. A PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE SURFACE LAYER MIXED WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FEET (OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6 FEET).
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...21/ABW
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