949
FXUS62 KILM 170811
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TODAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD BRING RAIN
AND POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME ICE TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS DRY, COLDER AIR POOLS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM YESTERDAY. WINDS COULD STILL GUST AROUND 20-25 MPH DURING
THE MORNING AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS SLOW TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH.
THESE GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOME LARGELY CALM TONIGHT AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE TIED TO A HIGH IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO OUT OF THE SW NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD, WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON, I HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SOME POSSIBLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S; LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH DRY AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP TUESDAY MOSTLY
SUNNY AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 50S.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ON THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THICKENING CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BECOME A
SOLID OVERCAST ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVING BY MIDDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXPANSIVE
AND VERTICALLY DEEP ZONE OF LIFT GIVES ME HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. STORM-TOTAL QPF
COULD EXCEED 1 INCH ALONG THE COAST WITH 0.5 TO 0.8 INCHES
EXPECTED INLAND - WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE D1-D2
DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL BEING EXPERIENCED.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE FL/GA
STATE LINE AND SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH AS THE LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE, PULLING COLD AIR DOWN FROM WHAT SHOULD BE A
RATHER HEFTY WINTER WEATHER EVENT ONGOING ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWEST 1500 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO HAVE A
REASONABLE CHANCE TO GO BELOW FREEZING WHILE RAIN IS STILL
FALLING WEDNESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SNOW APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN
DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE,
HOWEVER SHALLOWER MOISTURE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND MAYBE SLEET IF SUBFREEZING AIR CAN BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH. WHILE IT'S TOO EARLY FOR A WATCH/ADVISORY OF ANY
KIND, BE ALERT THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATING WINTRY WEATHER
TO DEAL WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD EASTWARD BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW THURSDAY, MAINTAINING VERY COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED THURSDAY NBM ENSEMBLE MEAN HIGHS ARE ONLY IN
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA, QUITE A CONTRAST FROM NORMAL
HIGHS WHICH HAVE RECENTLY RISEN INTO THE LOWER 60S AT ILM AND
FLO. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN A BUBBLE OF 850 MB TEMPS POTENTIALLY AS COLD AS -10C WILL
CROSS THE AREA. EVEN WITH WIND, LOWS COULD STILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA, THE COLDEST SINCE THE VERY COLD
STRETCH JAN 21-25.
THE AIRMASS SHOULD WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FRIDAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE CANADIAN HIGH APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. DAYTIME TEMPS
40-45 SHOULD AGAIN FALL DEEP INTO THE 20S AS WINDS FINALLY GO
CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE CANADIAN HIGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH MODIFYING
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS VERY DIFFICULT AT THAT TIME RANGE BUT
ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
THAN 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE, AND I'LL
MAINTAIN ONLY A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN MONDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KTS WILL
BECOME A BIT LIGHTER BY DAYBREAK, WITH A TURN TO THE NNW MONDAY
MORNING AND AN INCREASE TO ~10 KTS. SOME GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PERSISTING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE TUE INTO EARLY WED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BEFORE VFR RETURNS LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL HAVE DROPPED BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX
AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO OUR NORTH. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20
KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS WILL RESPOND A BIT
SLOWER DECREASING FROM 3-5 FT TO 2-3 FT BY TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL PROVIDE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15 KT OR LESS TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOW SHOULD
CROSS N FL/S GA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC, WITH OUR WIND DIRECTIONS BACKING TO THE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE SC WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...TRA/LEW
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