314
FXUS62 KILM 172105
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
405 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOL WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TODAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING RAIN
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA
AND ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS TO AROUND 30F, WITH MID 20S LIKELY IN
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY, THOUGH A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. CLOUDS AND
INCREASING NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRATIFORM RAIN
SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NC AND
NORTHEASTERN SC WILL START AS PLAIN RAIN. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW
DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, COLD AIR ADVECTION
NEAR THE SURFACE WILL DRAG FREEZING TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHER ICE ACCRETION
EFFICIENCY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN RATES
DECREASE. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CITIES OF LUMBERTON, ELIZABETHTOWN, AND
BURGAW. PENDER COUNTY HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WATCH, BUT THE
RANGE OF POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS LARGE. COASTAL AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATION AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE OR
LESS DUE TO WARMER AIR NEAR THE COAST.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW REGARDING ICE TOTALS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER, MODELS UNDERWENT A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN SHIFT TODAY WITH COLDER AIR BUILDING INTO
THE CAROLINAS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS LARGE FOR THE WATCH AREA, 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILES ARE AROUND A TENTH TO JUST GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH WITH A MEAN OF AROUND TWO TENTHS. CONFIDENCE IN TOTALS
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE NEAR 50%, BUT ADDITIONAL
FORECASTS WILL NARROW DOWN THE POTENTIAL NEED OF AN ICE STORM
WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH ON
THURSDAY WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER TEENS. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
CALM AND CLEAR ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S, BUT A FEW OF OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITS THE FORECAST AREA. ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING US INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. MODELS HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO TOMORROW. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, GOING CALM AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
IN STORE FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PERSISTING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE VFR RETURNS LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY 10-15 KT DAYTIME TUESDAY.
SEAS 2-3 FT, PRIMARILY DUE TO SE 9 SEC SWELL WITH WEAK WIND
CHOP MIXED IN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH NE WINDS INCREASING AS A LOW DEVELOPS
TO OUR SOUTH. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET. WINDS
REMAIN NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY EVENING AS A REINFORCING TROUGH OF COLD AIR ARRIVES.
GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN, BUT THE CHANCES FOR AN
SCA APPEAR MARGINAL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-105.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...VAO/21
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