913
FXUS62 KILM 181122
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY EVENING MAY CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE WITH THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT WE SHOULD GET A BREAK
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND STREAMS OVERHEAD. UPDATED 12Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL EFFECT. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP AS
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BRINGING STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER, ESPECIALLY IN OUR
MORE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NEAR THE COAST. INLAND COULD REMAIN NEAR
FREEZING BUT ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL LARGELY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S, WITH 40S POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NE SC. AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW SHOULD JUMP ACROSS
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY, REFORMING OFF THE THE GEORGIA COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEEPENING AS RIDES UP THE GULF STREAM
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BLOSSOM NORTH OF THE LOW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MORNING
SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN, BECOMING A SOLID SHIELD OF MODERATE RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 100 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES ARE BEING MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST BUT WITH STORM
TOTAL QPF (0.3 TO 0.7 INCHES) REDUCED BY ALMOST HALF FROM WHAT
WAS EXPECTED THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THICK CLOUDS, EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING AT PRECIP ONSET, AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MEANS WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPS WON'T MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S
ANYWHERE NORTH OF GEORGETOWN, AND COULD EVEN STALL IN THE UPPER
30S ACROSS BENNETTSVILLE, LUMBERTON, AND ELIZABETHTOWN.
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
SUBFREEZING AIR SUPPORTING THIS EVENT WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, TRANSITIONING ANY REMAINING RAIN OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN. OUR FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS THIS CHANGEOVER
OCCURRING IN LUMBERTON BY 7 PM; BURGAW, WHITEVILLE AND FLORENCE
BY 9 PM; AND SURF CITY, WILMINGTON AND CONWAY BY 11 PM.
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION GENERATION ALOFT WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE 295K AND 300K LAYERS DRY OUT, HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS
MAY MAINTAIN PATCHY LIGHT (FREEZING) RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NWS RAH AND MHX, WE'RE GOING TO MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR ROBESON, BLADEN, AND INLAND PENDER COUNTIES WHERE THERE
SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS (0.25") OF
FREEZING RAIN. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENTUALLY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH WHERE LIGHTER FREEZING RAIN
COULD DEVELOP.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE
APPALACHIANS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
THURSDAY FOR EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS CLOUDS TO LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT WON'T BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRAY SNOW
FLURRY OR TWO TO MAKE IT DOWN GIVEN THE COLD IN-CLOUD AND SUB-
CLOUD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THURSDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD ONLY
APPROACH 40 DEGREES.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CANADIAN
HIGH STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED AND KEEP
TEMPS FROM CRASHING. MY FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 20S.
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY AS THE CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
OFFSHORE. SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S FRIDAY WARMING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY, BUT MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE LOCATION OR INTENSITY OF ASSOCIATED
CYCLOGENESIS. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS RAIN
SUNDAY, NBM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE LESS EXCITED ABOUT THIS
POTENTIAL AND I'LL KEEP POPS NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME. THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AS HIGHS MAY REACH THE 60S AGAIN.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. COULD START TO SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MIX IN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PERSISTING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE RESTRICTIONS START TO
RETURN DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY AM BEFORE VFR RETURNS AND PERSISTS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS TODAY, INCREASING TO
NEAR 20 KTS LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL REMAIN ~2 FT THROUGH
THE DAY AND A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AS THEY'RE SLOWER TO RESPOND,
BUT 4 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ALONG
THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL JUMP EASTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA, REFORMING OFF THE GA COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
WILL BACK TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE, THEN WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE
DEFINITION OF A BOMB CYCLONE (24 MB PRESSURE DROP IN 24 HOURS
TIME) WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. WE COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE AN ADVISORY JUST YET.
WINDS WON'T DROP APPRECIABLY UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE WEST.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-105.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...TRA/LEW
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