924
FXUS62 KILM 182101
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
401 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
GULF COAST WEDNESDAY WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WARMING TREND KICKS OFF ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE GETTING PINCHED
AGAINST THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SYSTEM EMERGING OUT OF THE
GULF HAS BEEN PUSHING MORE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MOSTLY OVERCAST CIRRUS BLANKETING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT, AIDED
BY SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MAKES ITS WAY OVER FROM THE GULF
COAST. LOWS DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S INLAND, NEAR 40 AT
THE COAST.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL HELP SPAWN A GULF
LOW THAT TRAVERSES ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM STARTS POURING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT INITIATES WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING, STARTING IN THE 285-290K
LAYER. THIS CREATES STRATIFORM RAIN TO FILL IN THE COASTAL
AREAS. OVER TIME, AS THE SURFACE LOW SPITS OUT OF FLORIDA AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC, THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GET DEEPER, ALLOWING
FOR A GOOD SWATH OF STRATIFORM TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST, IT DRAGS MORE OFFSHORE
THROUGHOUT. THIS HELPS TO DRAG IN MORE COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH,
WHICH IS WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION COMES INTO PLAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED IN
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE DECREASING BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF RECORDING FREEZING RAIN
INLAND. SOME OF THE FAR INLAND AREAS IN THE SC PEE DEE AND NC
COASTAL PLAIN REGIONS MAY START TO SEE FREEZING RAIN AS EARLY AS
3-5 PM EST. THIS HAS PROMPTED AN EXPANSION OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING
DARLINGTON, FLORENCE, MARLBORO, DILLON, MARION, NORTHERN HORRY,
ROBESON, BLADEN, COLUMBUS, INLAND BRUNSWICK, INLAND NEW HANOVER,
AND PENDER COUNTIES. THIS ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY AND GOES UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY.
A KEY PIECE TO ALL OF THIS IS THAT DESPITE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING RAIN, THE TOTAL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO GO
DOWN. MOST SHOULD SEE WELL LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE,
WITH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MARLBORO, ROBESON, BLADEN, AND
PENDER COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT CAPTURING A TENTH OF
AN INCH. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY START TO AFFECT ROAD
CONDITIONS BY THE EVENING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
*FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR 0.1" IN NORTHERN AREAS. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING.
*COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIND CHILLS OF
10-15F.
WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OFFSHORE, LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WARM NOSE AT 850MB REMAINS PRESENT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH FREEZING RAIN PRIMARY P-TYPE AND COVERAGE SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 7PM AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HOURS, WITH GREATEST STORM TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.1"
ACROSS PARTS OF PENDER, BLADEN AND ROBESON COUNTIES. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER MOST OF THE CWA,
WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS (FAR SOUTHERN AND A FEW COASTAL ZONES) DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
COMES TO AN END. LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO MID TO UPPER 20S
BY THURSDAY MORNING. BE MINDFUL OF POTENTIAL SLICK SPOTS
THURSDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, AS
WELL AS PATIOS AND WALKWAYS.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY WHILE MID LEVELS GET COLDER AND DRIER. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS NC THURSDAY MORNING
PROVIDING AMPLE TO SUPPORT TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE MORE
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY FOR SE NC AREAS. EVEN THOUGH FREEZING
TEMPS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE AIR COLUMN, SINCE SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE DRY ABOVE -10C (MEANING NO MOISTURE FOR THE DGZ OR
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH), PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING. COLUMN DRIES OUT AND
CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WITH STRONG CAA
ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S.
CAA REMAINS QUITE STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR
-10C. WHILE LINGERING WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING REAL
LOW, LOW TEMPS ARE STILL NEAR 20F THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WINDS DROPPING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10-15F. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS LIKELY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW 20S, WITH
TEENS LIKELY IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WITH CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. SLIGHT
WARMING SATURDAY AS CAA COMES TO AN END, THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 50F. UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
LATE SATURDAY, WHICH WILL HELP DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH AND
POTENTIALLY A WEAK LOW OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS US DRY, BUT WILL WATCH FOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEK FOR POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. FORECAST CURRENTLY DRY FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK DUE
TO LIMITED MOISTURE.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CIRRUS IS STARTING TO COME IN FROM THE WEST, THE FIRST SIGN
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
LOWER, PARTICULARLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD
DROP TO MVFR BY 12-14Z, STARTING AT THE COAST, AND THEN
SPREADING TO THE INLAND TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO DECREASE
TO 5-6 SM DUE TO -RA. IFR CEILINGS BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KILM AS
EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. -RA MAY BE MORE PREVALENT AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS THAN THE INLAND TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY,
POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN
DROP INTO LIFR TERRITORY DURING THIS TIME. RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE
LATE THURSDAY MORNING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN LATER IN
THE DAY. FROM THERE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE LOCKED IN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST,
AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, ALBEIT A
SLIGHT BACKING TO THE NNE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY, WINDS ARE 10-15 KTS AND SEAS ARE 2-3 FT. BUT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS MAKING ITS WAY UP OFFSHORE OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AND WILL TRIGGER A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO
LITTLE RIVER INLET, SC. THIS ADVISORY STARTS AT 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY AND GOES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY MORNING. GRADIENT
STAYS JUST BELOW THRESHOLDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO
NORTHEAST SC, SO I HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY IN THAT AREA FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE
WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KTS (ESPECIALLY SE NC WATERS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE LOW). SEAS 3- 5 FT ACROSS NE SC WATERS AND 4-6 FT FOR SE
NC WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO NORTHERLY SWELL, AND SCA IN
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LOCAL NC WATERS. OFFSHORE
WINDS REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH LINGERING SEAS OF 3-5 FT, DUE TO TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW (NOW OFF NORTHEAST COAST) AND EXPANDING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL US. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH
IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. VEERING WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS FORECASTED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>107-109.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB/VAO
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