971
FXUS62 KILM 190903
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
403 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH CAUSING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY AND
MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
KICK OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
APPROACHING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE BRINGING IN INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE COAST TOWARDS INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT WE'LL ONLY START SEEING THOSE LOWER
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE SYSTEM IS TO OUR E/NE AND COLDER AIR STARTS TO
WRAP AROUND THE BACK OF IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN. FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, ICE ACCUMULATION
HAS GONE UP SLIGHTLY FOR OUR AREA PROMPTING AN EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO MORE OF OUR NE SC COUNTIES SANS COASTAL
GEORGETOWN. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WITH MUCH HIGHER
TOTALS TO OUR NE, BUT HAVE OPTED TO ONLY MARGINALLY INCREASE TOTALS
ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR OUR NE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, ICE
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE BETWEEN A TRACE TO UP AND AROUND 0.05", WITH
GENERALLY DECREASING TOTALS THE FURTHER SW IN THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES OFF TO THE E/NE OVERNIGHT, PRECIP CHANCES WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE AND COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT AS DRY AIR POOLS IN AND
PWATS FALL TO NEAR 0.5". HAVE LOWERED HIGHS AND LOWS FROM GUIDANCE
FOR TODAY TO NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE. HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY TODAY
AS THE LOW PUSHES BY FROM THE SW, TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND AND
UPPER 40S AT THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
*VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLE THU AM
*BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW 15
DEGREES LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
*ALTHOUGH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE MOVING FARTHER AWAY
THU, TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP THU AM, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OR EVEN SNOW IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING IN SC
AND LATE MORNING IN NC, ALTHOUGH COULD STAY AROUND FREEZING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SC
PEE DEE/NC SANDHILLS. SO MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION IN THESE
AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF DRIVING ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS SUCH AS BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. HIGHS THU SHOULD NOT GET MUCH WARMER THAN 40 FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY INLAND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 20 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY FRI. SOME WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER
WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES AND THUS A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S WITH PLENTY OF SUN. RATHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FRI NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES MORE OVERHEAD, ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF HIGHER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY DETERMINE JUST HOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE. SOME OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS SUCH AS BACK ISLAND COULD DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FOR THE MOST PART.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
*NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ANTICIPATED
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
*HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS. LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND LEADING TO MAINLY SOME COASTAL SHOWERS BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL MON WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY TERMINALS WITH NO MENTION OF FZRA ARE KCRE/KMYR WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST ON MORE THAN A TRACE OF FZRA, OTHERWISE OTHER
TERMINALS HAVE BEEN GIVEN MENTION OF THIS HAZARD WHICH SHOULD START
INLAND EXPANDING TO THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING. BEFOREHAND, RA
WILL EXPAND INLAND FROM THE COAST DUE TO LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
RESTRICTIONS ALSO EXPECTED FOR CIGS/VSBYS WITH A LITTLE STAGGERING
POSSIBLE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR (A COUPLE HOURS, 16-18Z), BUT WITH THE
COMPLICATED FORECAST HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH PREDOMINANT WORST
CONDITIONS. IFR LIKELY THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON LIFR AS IT'S POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THERE'S A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW,
PARTICULARLY INLAND. RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY MORNING,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. FROM THERE, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE
MORNING FROM NE TO SW AS NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ~30 KTS. 6 FT SEAS MAY STICK TO THE NC COASTAL WATERS BUT THEY
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 20NM OFFSHORE FROM OUR SC COAST. DEGRADED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE SW TO OUR NE TONIGHT, WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NW BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING FARTHER OFF TO THE NE THU ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY LATER THU INTO EARLY FRI. BENIGN CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSUMING POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
SUN STAYS FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE AREA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054-055-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/LEW
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