507
FXUS62 KILM 191807
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
107 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH CAUSING SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY AND
MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
KICK OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPDATE
PARENT SURFACE LOW STILL IN THE GULF, BUT A SECONDARY LOW IS NOW
MOVING OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. RIGHT ON
SCHEDULE, TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO FALL WITHIN THE LAST HOUR
OR SO. WINTRY MIX ONGOING WELL TO THE NORTH, WITH FREEZING RAIN
BEING REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FAYETTEVILLE AREA. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, THIS LINE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, UPDATED 18Z TAF DISCUSSION FOUND BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
APPROACHING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE BRINGING IN INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE COAST TOWARDS INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT WE'LL ONLY START SEEING THOSE LOWER
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE SYSTEM IS TO OUR E/NE AND COLDER AIR STARTS TO
WRAP AROUND THE BACK OF IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN. FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, ICE ACCUMULATION
HAS GONE UP SLIGHTLY FOR OUR AREA PROMPTING AN EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO MORE OF OUR NE SC COUNTIES SANS COASTAL
GEORGETOWN. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WITH MUCH HIGHER
TOTALS TO OUR NE, BUT HAVE OPTED TO ONLY MARGINALLY INCREASE TOTALS
ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR OUR NE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, ICE
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE BETWEEN A TRACE TO UP AND AROUND 0.05", WITH
GENERALLY DECREASING TOTALS THE FURTHER SW IN THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES OFF TO THE E/NE OVERNIGHT, PRECIP CHANCES WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE AND COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT AS DRY AIR POOLS IN AND
PWATS FALL TO NEAR 0.5". HAVE LOWERED HIGHS AND LOWS FROM GUIDANCE
FOR TODAY TO NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE. HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY TODAY
AS THE LOW PUSHES BY FROM THE SW, TEMPS IN THE MID 30S INLAND AND
UPPER 40S AT THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
*VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLE THU AM
*BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW 15
DEGREES LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
*ALTHOUGH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE MOVING FARTHER AWAY
THU, TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP THU AM, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OR EVEN SNOW IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING IN SC
AND LATE MORNING IN NC, ALTHOUGH COULD STAY AROUND FREEZING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SC
PEE DEE/NC SANDHILLS. SO MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION IN THESE
AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF DRIVING ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS SUCH AS BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. HIGHS THU SHOULD NOT GET MUCH WARMER THAN 40 FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY INLAND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 20 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY FRI. SOME WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER
WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES AND THUS A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S WITH PLENTY OF SUN. RATHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FRI NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES MORE OVERHEAD, ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF HIGHER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY DETERMINE JUST HOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE. SOME OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS SUCH AS BACK ISLAND COULD DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FOR THE MOST PART.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
*NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ANTICIPATED
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
*HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS. LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND LEADING TO MAINLY SOME COASTAL SHOWERS BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL MON WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
FREEZING RAIN WAS REPORTED EARLIER IN THE FAYETTEVILLE AREA, BUT
THE LOCAL TERMINALS ARE SAFE AT THE MOMENT. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO FRZA IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONTINUED TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS FOR FZRA AT KCRE/KMYR, WHILE
FM GROUPS REMAIN FOR EVERYONE ELSE. CEILINGS ARE MOSTLY MVFR FOR
NOW, BUT WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. FROM THERE, IFR CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KFLO AND KLBT MAY TRY TO GET BACK UP INTO MVFR AROUND
12Z THURSDAY, BUT FORECASTER INTUITION TELLS ME THAT'S A BIT TOO
EARLY. KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR MAY TRY TO GET BACK INTO MVFR BY
16-18Z THURSDAY. NE WINDS CONTINUE, AND FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED, SOME EVEN CLOSER TO 30 KTS. GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK NORTHERLY
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR BY THE EVENING. FROM THERE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR
LIMITED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THERE. PREVAILING THINKING OF VFR CONTINUES.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE
MORNING FROM NE TO SW AS NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ~30 KTS. 6 FT SEAS MAY STICK TO THE NC COASTAL WATERS BUT THEY
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 20NM OFFSHORE FROM OUR SC COAST. DEGRADED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE SW TO OUR NE TONIGHT, WINDS BECOMING MORE N/NW BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING FARTHER OFF TO THE NE THU ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY LATER THU INTO EARLY FRI. BENIGN CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSUMING POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
SUN STAYS FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE AREA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>110.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-054-055-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...RJB/LEW
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