269
FXUS62 KILM 192353
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION COMING
TO END EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE INLAND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN KICK OFF EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE CENTER OF THIS LOW DIDN'T EXACTLY EASTWARD AS
EXPECTED, BUT IT DID GROW IN SIZE. THE EXPANSION OF THIS LOW
STILL RESULTED IN THE SAME ANSWER, PULLING IN MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AIR AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES SINCE LATE THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS
MOSTLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEEPENING. A FEW ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
STARTED AS EARLY AS 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WAS
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
AS MORE AND MORE LOCATIONS FALL DOWN TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING,
FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THIS EVENT STARTED FASTER
THAN EXPECTED, IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO END MUCH EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, THE MOISTURE CUTS
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD CEASE BY 11 PM -
MIDNIGHT INLAND, AND MIDNIGHT - 1 AM AT THE COAST. DESPITE THIS
FASTER PROGRESSION, TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS STILL DON'T LOOK
TREMENDOUSLY THREATENING (LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH). IF THIS
SYSTEM FINDS A WAY TO OVERPERFORM, SOME AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MARLBORO, ROBESON, BLADEN, AND PENDER
COUNTIES COULD RECORD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THIS RESULTS IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ALONG SIDEWALKS, BRIDGES,
AND ROADS. NO MATTER THE CASE, NEED TO EXPRESS CAUTION DURING
THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 20S. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL, WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE COMES IN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN JUST
MORE CLOUDS, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TRY TO ACT LIKE A SPONGE
AND SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION. IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND, YOU MAY SEE A SMALL FLURRY OR TWO IN THE PEE DEE
REGION OR IN THE INLAND AREAS OF THE NC COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD PULL OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS ONLY HIT THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
*COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WIND CHILLS OF 10-15F.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN EXITING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL US WILL DROP LOW TEMPS TO
AROUND 20F, POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER. DUE TO ELEVATED
LOW LEVEL WINDS, WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10-15F BY
FRIDAY MORNING, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S FRIDAY ARE ALMOST 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DESPITE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT, CALM WINDS FROM NEARLY
OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP LOW TEMPS DOWN TO ~22F (TEENS
LIKELY IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY INCREASING TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MAY LEAD
TO A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS
OUR AREA DRY, BUT A FEW ENSEMBLES SHOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
EARLY MONDAY BETWEEN THE PVA AND OFFSHORE LOW/TROUGH. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL TUES/WED AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND A SLOW- MOVING TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTH.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT FOR
AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS
OR BELOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL
SITES. SOME VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR IS ANTICIPATED WEST
TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY BRINGING A LITANY OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION MOVES OFF. SPEAKING OF P-TYPE AN
INTERESTING TREND HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY INCREASING A DEGREE OR TWO
WHICH IN TURN HAS LED TO AN END TO THE -FZRA AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. IT COULD BE LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF SOME PREVIOUS
ICE ACCRETION...SOME SENSIBLE HEAT TRANSFER FROM WARMER AIR
ALOFT OR PERHAPS JUST PLAIN NOISE. USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ADDRESS
THIS MORE UNCERTAIN TREND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR BY THE EVENING. FROM THERE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR
LIMITED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THERE. PREVAILING THINKING OF VFR CONTINUES.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK NORTHERLY BEFORE SUNRISE, AND THEN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS DROP DOWN BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY, FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KTS AND
SEAS 3-5 FT ARE STILL EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS GUSTY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KT
AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT, AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
BETWEEN EXITING LOW PRESSURE AND BUILDING HIGH OVER CENTRAL US.
SEAS IN TURN WILL BE 3-5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FROM
OFFSHORE WIND WAVES. WINDS AND SEAS IMPROVE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH WINDS
LOWERING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2- 3 FT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS INFLUENCE, WITH WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS 1-3 FT. COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAY LEAD TO A FEW OFFSHORE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>110.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-054-055-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...IGB/VAO
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