819
FXUS62 KILM 200601
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
101 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WARMING
TREND WILL THEN KICK OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER.
UPDATE
FREEZING RAIN TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTY N-NW WINDS WILL USHER IN
DRIER AND COLDER AIR INTO TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. WWY REMAINS IN EFFECT
AS TEMPS DROP AND POTENTIAL FOR ICE ON ROADWAYS EXISTS INTO
EARLY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 06Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE CENTER OF THIS LOW DIDN'T EXACTLY EASTWARD AS
EXPECTED, BUT IT DID GROW IN SIZE. THE EXPANSION OF THIS LOW
STILL RESULTED IN THE SAME ANSWER, PULLING IN MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AIR AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES SINCE LATE THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS
MOSTLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEEPENING. A FEW ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
STARTED AS EARLY AS 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WAS
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
AS MORE AND MORE LOCATIONS FALL DOWN TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING,
FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THIS EVENT STARTED FASTER
THAN EXPECTED, IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO END MUCH EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, THE MOISTURE CUTS
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD CEASE BY 11 PM -
MIDNIGHT INLAND, AND MIDNIGHT - 1 AM AT THE COAST. DESPITE THIS
FASTER PROGRESSION, TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS STILL DON'T LOOK
TREMENDOUSLY THREATENING (LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH). IF THIS
SYSTEM FINDS A WAY TO OVERPERFORM, SOME AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MARLBORO, ROBESON, BLADEN, AND PENDER
COUNTIES COULD RECORD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE A TENTH OF AN INCH.
THIS RESULTS IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ALONG SIDEWALKS, BRIDGES,
AND ROADS. NO MATTER THE CASE, NEED TO EXPRESS CAUTION DURING
THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 20S. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL, WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE COMES IN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN JUST
MORE CLOUDS, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TRY TO ACT LIKE A SPONGE
AND SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION. IF IT MAKES IT TO
THE GROUND, YOU MAY SEE A SMALL FLURRY OR TWO IN THE PEE DEE
REGION OR IN THE INLAND AREAS OF THE NC COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD PULL OFF BY
MIDDAY. HIGHS ONLY HIT THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
*COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WIND CHILLS OF 10-15F.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN EXITING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL US WILL DROP LOW TEMPS TO
AROUND 20F, POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER. DUE TO ELEVATED
LOW LEVEL WINDS, WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10-15F BY
FRIDAY MORNING, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S FRIDAY ARE ALMOST 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DESPITE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT, CALM WINDS FROM NEARLY
OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP LOW TEMPS DOWN TO ~22F (TEENS
LIKELY IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY INCREASING TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MAY LEAD
TO A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS
OUR AREA DRY, BUT A FEW ENSEMBLES SHOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
EARLY MONDAY BETWEEN THE PVA AND OFFSHORE LOW/TROUGH. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL TUES/WED AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND A SLOW- MOVING TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTH.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR
BETWEEN 08 TO 14Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FURTHER BETWEEN 18
TO 21Z. BY END OF THE THE PERIOD, EXPECT VFR WITH SKC. GUSTY
N-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
BACKING ONLY SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL REMAIN BETWEEN 330 AND 360.
ANY FREEZING PCP HAS ENDED WITH ONLY POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
SPRINKLE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR LIMITED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE.
PREVAILING THINKING OF VFR CONTINUES.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK NORTHERLY BEFORE SUNRISE, AND THEN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS DROP DOWN BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY, FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20-22 KTS AND
SEAS 3-5 FT ARE STILL EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS GUSTY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KT
AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT, AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
BETWEEN EXITING LOW PRESSURE AND BUILDING HIGH OVER CENTRAL US.
SEAS IN TURN WILL BE 3-5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY FROM
OFFSHORE WIND WAVES. WINDS AND SEAS IMPROVE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH WINDS
LOWERING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2- 3 FT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS INFLUENCE, WITH WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS 1-3 FT. COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAY LEAD TO A FEW OFFSHORE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054-055-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...IGB/VAO
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