841
FXUS62 KILM 201820
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WARMING
TREND WILL THEN KICK OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY
WEATHER. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO
MIDWEEK.
UPDATE
A SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH ALOFT. IF YOU
LOOK THROUGH THE 925-700 MB LAYERS, THERE IS AN ENHANCED LOBE OF
VORTICITY SWEEPING THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS IS
PERFECTLY CO-LOCATED WITH SATURATION, AND HAS ALLOWED FOR A BAND
OF SNOW TO FORM AND MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS EVEN
CAUSED SOME TRACE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FLORENCE AND DARLINGTON
COUNTIES. WHILE THIS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY, THIS BANDING IS
STILL LIKELY TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OBSERVATIONS TO THE CAPE
FEAR REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IF THE BANDING TAPS
INTO SOME ENHANCED ENERGY, IT MAY TRY TO PRODUCE SOME TRACE
ACCUMULATIONS. THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY THOUGH. NOT EXPECTING THIS
TO AFFECT TRAVEL.
ELSEWHERE, UPDATED 18Z TAF DISCUSSION FOUND BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ALL PCP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND NOW WE WILL SWITCH FOCUS
TO POSSIBLE ICE ON THE ROADWAYS THIS MORNING AND MUCH COLDER
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES
IN EFFECT UNTIL 10A TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
CONTRIBUTING TO POSSIBLE ICE ON ROADWAYS AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
ON SIDEWALKS, BRIDGES AND ROADWAYS. BE CAUTIOUS DURING THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. ACTUAL TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE 30S, BUT WIND CHILL TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. OVERALL A CHILLY DAY. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT WITH MOISTURE GETTING SQUEEZED OUT THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS. SHOULD SEE SOME CU HANGING AROUND INTO MID AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE PASSES. MAY EVEN SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF PCP, BUT LOOKING
AT SOUNDING DATA, WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF FORECAST BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BIT MAINLY IN THE PEE DEE REGION. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS MOST PLACES AND WIND
CHILL TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 MOST PLACES. THEREFORE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO STRONG CAA AND ELEVATED WINDS, NECESSITATING A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CAA STARTS TO WEAKEN DUE
TO BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT. FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLEAR SKIES WITH FULL
SUN, HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO
STREAM IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT, BUT THIS WON'T
AMOUNT TO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND THIS PAIRED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL BE LARGELY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S BUT OUR TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS.
CAA WILL COMPLETELY COME TO AN END SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH MORE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FILLING IN, BUT ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.
HIGHS NEAR 50 WITH LOWS NEAR 30.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE LINGERING
OFFSHORE. AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT, A WEAK LOW MAY FORM
OFFSHORE SUNDAY WHICH COULD PUSH RAIN CHANCES MORE TOWARDS THE COAST
RATHER THAN JUST STAYING OVER WATER, BUT HAVE KEPT THINGS OVER THE
WATER FOR NOW. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WAA THROUGH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHERE THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND
WEAK AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FEW ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS REMAIN, BUT THE TRANSITION TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS IS NEARLY COMPLETE. BIGGER STORY IS THE
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. KILM STANDS A DECENT CHANCE AT RECORDING A FEW
OBSERVATIONS OF -SN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS MAY BRING THE
CEILINGS BACK DOWN TO IFR BRIEFLY. FROM THERE, HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 22-00Z FOR KFLO AND
LBT, AND 23-01Z FOR KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR. VFR SHOULD COME IN
AFTER SUNSET, EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN SKC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KTS HAVE OCCURRED AT TIMES, BUT SHOULD
CALM AFTER SUNSET. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WHOLE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR LIMITED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE. PREVAILING THINKING OF
VFR CONTINUES.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
9 AM FRI MORNING. N-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP AROUND 25
KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY WEAKEN A BIT INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT MORE INTO TONIGHT AS
EXITING LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT ACROSS
ALL OF THE WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES N WINDS AT 20 KTS WILL DECREASE TO
NEAR 10 KTS BY LATE FRIDAY, SEAS BECOMING 1-2 FT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE SW
FLOW BUILDS IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INTO TUESDAY, SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 10-15 KTS AND SEAS TO 2-3 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...RGZ/LEW
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