084
FXUS62 KILM 210637
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
137 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
WITH THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE WAY, DRY AND MUCH
COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
KICK OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR A
VERY CHILLY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN IN THE LOWER TEENS
MOST PLACES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH ALOFT PRODUCED
SOME DECENT FORCING WITHIN THE 925-700 MB LAYER. THIS WAS
PERFECTLY CO-LOCATED WITH SATURATION, AND ALLOWED FOR A BAND OF
SNOW TO FORM AND MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS EVEN
CAUSED SOME TRACE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FLORENCE AND DARLINGTON
COUNTIES. THE BAND WEAKENED AS IT CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST, BUT
SEVERAL REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW WERE REPORTED IN THE CAPE FEAR
REGION.
THERE'S ONE MORE, WEAKER BAND BEHIND THIS, WHICH IS NEARING THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. THIS ONE IS MUCH DRIER, BUT EVEN SO, CAN'T
RULE OUT A SMALL FLURRY OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY.
MEANWHILE, TO THE NORTHWEST, THERE IS EVIDENCE OF CLEARING THAT
IS STARTING TO SNEAK INTO MARLBORO COUNTY, SC. CLOUD CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE, AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING. CONVENIENTLY, WILMINGTON OFFICIALLY HITS 6 PM SUNSETS
THIS EVENING, WHICH MAY LINE UP JUST RIGHT WITH THE BROKEN
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. YOU MAY WANT TO STEP OUTSIDE AND SEE SOME
COTTON CANDY SUNSETS.
BONE-CHILLING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STICK AROUND TONIGHT, THOUGH
THE GUSTS DO COME DOWN A BIT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. THE
COMBINATION OF THE BREEZE AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW WIND
CHILLS TO DIP DOWN TOWARDS 10-15 DEGREES. AS A RESULT, A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST SC AND
SOUTHEAST NC FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY.
NOTHING BUT SUNSHINE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY CALM MORE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID
40S, SOME 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
COLDEST WEATHER WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH LOOKS AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE-WISE BUT WITHOUT MUCH WIND A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AND EVEN THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RECOVERY DUE TO THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. EVEN SO, HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ARE STILL APPROACHING 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY.
WHEREAS LOWS AROUND 30 SATURDAY NIGHT ARE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES SHY
OF NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND OUR LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH.
LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, APPARENTLY DRIVING A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
AND A FEW 70S MAY BE NOTED TUESDAY. THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE MINIMAL, ONLY KNOCKING HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CLEAR SKIES AND
GUSTY N-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY LEAVING CALM AND
CLEAR CONDITIONS BY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR LIMITED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE. PREVAILING THINKING OF
VFR CONTINUES.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 AM EST
FRIDAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KTS. SEAS
CURRENTLY AT 2-4 FT AT THE COAST, 4-5 FT OUT 20 NM FROM SHORE.
AS FRIDAY WEARS ON, CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CLOCK IN AT 10-15 KTS, AND SEAS
DECREASE TO 1-3 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS TO START THE
PERIOD WILL ONLY GET MORE BENIGN FOR MOST OF IT. HIGH PRESSURE
INITIAL BUILDING FROM THE NW WHILE WEAKENING, THE LATTER FACT
BRINING EVER LIGHTER FLOW. THEN THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY
SUNDAY MAKING WIND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS THE HIGH TRIES TO
STRENGTHEN ONLY SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A WEAK SE
SWELL MAY COMMINGLE WITH THE DIMINUTIVE WIND WAVES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...MBB/IGB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page