716
FXUS62 KILM 211808
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
108 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WARMING TREND WILL
THEN KICK OFF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY
WEATHER. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. SURFACE WARMING HAS BEEN TOUGH DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE
DUE TO A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIMITING VERTICAL GROWTH OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS, HOURLY TEMPS WERE SHAVED A DEGREE OR
TWO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ONGOING
TREND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS TO GO LIGHT OR CALM SOON AFTER
SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES CRASHING AFTER SUNSET.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CHILLY TEMPS WILL START THE DAY WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS. TEMPS WILL
REACH ABOVE FREEZING BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND WILL RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S, REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS GRADIENT
RELAXES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW
WILL EXIST ALOFT. MAY SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS,
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT OVERALL, EXPECT A CLEAR SKY.
BY TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL DROP DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 20S
AGAIN. WITHOUT THE WINDS, WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT
WILL FORM OFFSHORE. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY AT THE
COAST AS THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE SOME SHOWERS TO PUSH ONSHORE. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS MORE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WILL GO FROM BELOW FREEZING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASED WAA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD CAUSE TUESDAY'S HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 70, 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND
RELATIVELY WEAK AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AN STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST COULD DRAG A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM SOON AFTER SUNSET WITH
SOME THIN CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY, EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THICK HIGH CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD
MOST TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY, BUT NO THREAT OF MVFR CIGS EXISTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS OVER SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KTS PROMPTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY LEAVING NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS DECREASE TO 1-3 FT. SEAS
UP TO 3 TO 5 FT WILL DROP OFF TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
DRY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE
WATERS WITH BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BECOMING NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. SEAS 1-2 FT WITH SOME 3 FOOTERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/LEW
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