669
FXUS62 KILM 221804
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
104 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHILLY WEATHER UNTIL ITS
TRANSITION OFFSHORE LEADS TO A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND
REMAIN RAIN-FREE. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOLDOWN FRIDAY.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE DRIER SO DEW POINTS
WERE TRENDED LOWER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY SHIFTING
OFF SHORE BY THIS EVENING. VERY LIGHT NORTH TO VARIABLE WINDS
WILL COME AROUND TO THE SE TO S INTO THIS EVENING. AS AIRMASS
MODIFIES, SHOULD SEE TEMPS A BIT WARMER TODAY, BUT STILL WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS JUST BREAKING 50 MOST PLACES. A DECENT
SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH A FAIRLY FLAT FLOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE COAST. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WEAK LIFT WITH MAINLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCP MAINLY OFF THE COAST
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL TAKE
ANY SHOWERS OR CLOUDS WITH IT, LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BY SUN
MORNING. DEWPOINTS WILL REBOUND A GOOD 10 DEGREES FROM THIS
AFTN TO SUN MORNING IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL HELP
TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MOST
PLACES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING FOR LOWS. MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG NEAR DAYBREAK SUN AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
*GENERALLY DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
*HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MOST,
IF NOT ALL, OF THE PERIOD, AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS MON/MON NIGHT, MAINLY IN SC,
BUT ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPS START OUT BELOW NORMAL
AND THEN FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS STARTING
MON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
*DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH WED NIGHT; SOME RAIN THU INTO
EARLY FRI W/ ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS; DRY AND COLDER FRI
CONFIDENCE:
*MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS:
*HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT W/ DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THU/THU NIGHT DESPITE A COLD FRONT BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS. COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRI WITH TEMPS
LIKELY FALLING BACK A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT MAY DIP BELOW 3K FEET IN HEIGHT, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE FEW TO SCATTERED COVERAGE RANGE. OTHERWISE,
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE MVFR
THRESHOLDS. WITH RESPECT TO FOG/MIST, ONLY KILM APPEARS TO HAVE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR, DESPITE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT.
AFTER DENSE MID-UPPER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT, LIGHT OR CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. IN ADDITION, THE MODELED VERTICAL TEMP/DEWPOINT PROFILE
BECOMES SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE FOR MVFR MIST TO DEVELOP, BUT ONLY
AT KILM. CONSIDERING THAT THE VIS DIPPED AS LOW AS 7SM AT KILM
THIS MORNING DESPITE A VERY DRY VERTICAL PROFILE, IT WOULD SEEM
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR MIST TOMORROW MORNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A PREVAILING GROUP THERE. ALL OTHER SITES HAVE A LESS-
SUPPORTIVE VERTICAL PROFILE AND THUS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN PLAY THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH MIDWEEK, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS OR VIS IN THE SC TERMINALS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS TODAY MOVING OFF THE COAST INTO THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO ONSHORE AND THEN SE BUT REMAINING LESS THAN
10 KTS FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FT MOST WATERS WITH A WEAK NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY SWELL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL LEADING TO A PRETTY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
2 FT OR LESS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
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