846
FXUS62 KILM 221955
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
255 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER
A GRADUAL WARMUP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOLDOWN FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY REVERSING AS SOON AS SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AMIDST ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY BENEATH TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL
RIDGING, LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHILE MID-UPPER CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THESE ARE
BEING DRIVEN BY A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE NC COAST. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS
WAVE CONTINUES EASTWARD. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST OR THE TIP
OF CAPE FEAR, NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
CLOUDS MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING,
AND TEMPS SHOULD TANK AS A RESULT. THUS, LOW TEMPS WERE TRENDED
BELOW THE MEAN OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S, WITH LOW-MID 20S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. GIVEN
THE RISE IN DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING
LOOKS LIKELY EARLY ON SUNDAY.
DURING THE DAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR WILL SUPPORT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH PATCHY THIN
CIRRUS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERMIT
WARMER HIGHS THAN ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 60F.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD BUT THERE
IS STILL A WARM ADVECTION SIGNAL ALOFT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, THE DEEPENING ASCENT THAT RESULTS SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BUT RAINFALL PROGGED TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY ENTERING SC. THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES BY ON MONDAY, SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHENING AN OFFSHORE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. ASSUMING THE MID
LEVEL WAVE STAYS OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE (THE GFS IDEA OF A MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING APPEARS SUSPECT AS THE AMORPHOUS BAROCLINICITY
OFFSHORE SHOULDN'T FAVOR ANY FEEDBACK) THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND
THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MILD ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A NIGHTTIME COLD FRONT THAT WILL CAUSE
LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AS WEDNESDAY REMAINS MILD AGAIN AS
WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN TO SOUTHERLY. THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT IS STILL
ON TRACK TO CONTAIN MORE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AS WELL AS THE
BENEFIT OF UPPER DYNAMICS AND SO REPRESENTS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF
THE ENTIRE PERIOD, THOUGH WE'RE STILL TALKING LOW END CHANCE RANGE.
AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY RETURN FLOW WILL REVERSE
THE TREND ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT MAY DIP BELOW 3K FEET IN HEIGHT, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE FEW TO SCATTERED COVERAGE RANGE. OTHERWISE,
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE MVFR
THRESHOLDS. WITH RESPECT TO FOG/MIST, ONLY KILM APPEARS TO HAVE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR, DESPITE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT.
AFTER DENSE MID-UPPER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT, LIGHT OR CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. IN ADDITION, THE MODELED VERTICAL TEMP/DEWPOINT PROFILE
BECOMES SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE FOR MVFR MIST TO DEVELOP, BUT ONLY
AT KILM. CONSIDERING THAT THE VIS DIPPED AS LOW AS 7SM AT KILM
THIS MORNING DESPITE A VERY DRY VERTICAL PROFILE, IT WOULD SEEM
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR MIST TOMORROW MORNING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A PREVAILING GROUP THERE. ALL OTHER SITES HAVE A LESS-
SUPPORTIVE VERTICAL PROFILE AND THUS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN PLAY THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH MIDWEEK, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS OR VIS IN THE SC TERMINALS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE NC
COAST TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPS ON ITS
BACKSIDE, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME PASSING SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THEY
SETTLE ON LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY.
WITH A WEAKLY-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN IN ITS WAKE, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW WILL DOMINATE ON SUNDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
AROUND 1 FOOT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE SO
WEAK EARLY IN THE PERIOD THAT A RARE "1FT SEAS" FORECAST WILL APPLY.
THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY COULD FINALLY INTRODUCE A 2 FT
DOMINANT WAVE MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS A MINOR
INCREASE (1FT OR SO) IN THE SE SWELL. MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS
RAMP UP THURSDAY AS THE FRONT THAT APPROACHES WILL BE STRONGER
AS WELL HAS HAVE BETTER FORCING ALOFT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ILM
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