327
FXUS62 KILM 280126
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
926 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY, WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS, LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG NEAR CREEKS AND
STREAMS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE
DAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK RETURN FLOW
ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RH ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
OBSERVED IN PREVIOUS DAYS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD CONTINUE
AS GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A SEA BREEZE DESPITE THE HIGHER
MINIMUM RH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AT 500 MILLIBARS, A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BORDER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST
OF THE CAROLINAS WILL RIDGE BACK TO THE GEORGIA COAST. THE SURFACE
WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
INCREASE FROM UNDER 1" TO 1.5" BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
A WEAK LIFT OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT, AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CAN'T BE RULED CLOSER TO SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STRONG JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND A SURFACE LOW-
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT TO MAINE ON MONDAY AS A 995
MILLIBAR LOW. TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD, REACHING THE APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY AND SHIFTS TO THE
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THAT OF THE
MODELS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE IS DECENT
MOISTURE THAT IS NEAR THE 90 PERCENTILE OF THE AVERAGE FOR THE END
OF MARCH. THE MEAN ENSEMBLE SURFACE CAPE IS AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 18
UTC MONDAY. THE WIND SHEAR IS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS BUT INCREASES
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE CONFIDENCE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY
IS WITH THE TIMING. QUICKER ARRIVING CONVECTION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY WOULD BE BEST FOR THE STRONG STORMS TO FORM. BY THE EVENING,
THERE WILL BE LESS INSTABILITY, BUT THE SHEAR IS INCREASING, SO
UNCERTAINTY IS STILL A CONCERN. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A 15%
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATIONS.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH ON
FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE AND SMALL CHANCE OF LOCALIZED GROUND FOG NEAR
STREAMS OR CREEKS FRIDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM
MORNING GROUND FOG ON SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY,
LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL MAINTAIN THEIR
VARIABLE DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BOLSTERED BY A SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
DURING THE DAY WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 2-3 FEET.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST OVERNIGHT ON
MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, AND WITH THE DURATION AND SOUTHERLY FETCH OF THE
WINDS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FEET SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A 6-FOOTER IS POSSIBLE 15 TO 20 MILES OFF THE COAST OF
CAPE FEAR ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL OF THE AREA WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM. A
NEW ONE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE ISSUED FOR INLAND NC AREAS AFTER THE
CURRENT STATEMENT EXPIRES. WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
NOT STRICTLY MEET CRITERIA BUT ONGOING DRYNESS AND DRY FUELS ARE A
SOURCE OF CONCERN.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...31
MARINE...21/RH
FIRE WEATHER...31
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