248
FXUS62 KILM 280805
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
405 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO SUN. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS LATER SUN FOLLOWED
BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO MON
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN, RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH TUE THRU THU.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A MID-LEVEL SOUTHEAST STATES SUBTLE RIDGE AXIS WILL APPROACH
FROM THE W TODAY AND REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LOOKING AT THIN
TO OPAQUE CIRRUS TODAY WITH PERIODIC ALTOCU POSSIBLE. COULD
SEE FEW/SCT CU/SCU AT 4.5K TO 6K FT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT
PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT
WILL KEEP A LID ON THE CU FIELD. TODAYS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S WITH A FEW 80+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL HOLD IN
THE 60S POSSIBLY ECLIPSING 70 BEFORE THE ADVENT AND INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE ALTOCU CLOUD SHIELD MAY DELAY
THE TEMPS FROM INCREASING EARLY ON BUT STILL SHOULD HIT
PRESCRIBED VALUES. A S-SSW LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THRU DAYBREAK SAT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED WITH LOWS A UNIFORM MID TO UPPER 50S AND ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT HELD AT BAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE AN OPAQUE CIRRUS
SHIELD, PREVENTING ANY DECENT RAD COOLING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE UP NEAR
60 ON SAT AND INTO THE 60S ON SUN WITH TEMPS UP AROUND 80.
SHOULD SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA ON SAT
INTO SUN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ALSO EXPECT SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE SAT AFTN, BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY PCP ON SAT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH SUN
THERE WILL BE BUT EXPECT PERIODS OF SUN OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD IT DAMPENS OUT A BIT BUT SHOULD
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES
EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUN. BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS, IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO TAP INTO BEST
HEATING ON SUN AND THEREFORE NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PCPN, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A DECENT SHWR OR TWO LATER ON
SUN. BEST CHC WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS THE PEE DEE OR FURTHER
SOUTH WHERE SHORTWAVE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED. IT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MON. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE
MILD SIDE WITH LOWS CLOSER TO 60.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MON SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS MID TO UPPER
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE
IN PLACE ON MON WITH TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM COOLER
BEACHES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH BEST
CHC OF CONVECTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA INTO MON EVENING.
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS, BUT LATER ARRIVAL, MAY LOSE
HEATING AND HELP KEEP STRONGER STORMS AT BAY. SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A LARGE AREA IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT WITH 15%
CHC OF SEVERE ON MONDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN INTO
LATE SUN ESPECIALLY AS THEY COME INTO THE MORE STABLE MARINE AIR
CLOSE TO COAST.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON TUES, BUT MAY SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS BY WED AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH INCREASING CHC OF
RAIN INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT ON
THURS. TEMPS WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE 70S TUES AND WED WITH
WARMING AGAIN ON THURS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 24 HR TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD. CLOUDS IN THE 15K TO 25K FOOT CEILING RANGE
POSSIBLE THRUOUT THE 24 HR PERIOD. ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED CU (VFR HEIGHT) ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES
INLAND THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR
THE LOW CHANCE OF LOCALIZED GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
FROM THE HIGH'S CENTER WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE OUTER BANKS. SE TO
S WINDS WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD, BELOW 5 KT THRU EARLY THIS
MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT INLAND AND 10-15 KT G20 KT
AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
EARLY SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM MORNING
GROUND FOG SAT MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SUN
AFTN AND EVENING COULD LEAD TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MON FROM CONVECTION ALONG AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. VFR DOMINATES TUE.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE HIGHS CENTER WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE WATERS THRU TONIGHT EVEN AS THE HIGHS CENTER
MIGRATES FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS. POSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN S-SSW WINDS
NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND SE-SSE WINDS SOUTH OF THE AXIS.
SFC PG INITIALLY WILL BE RELAXED WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR
LESS EXCEPT 10-15 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZES FORMATION AND INLAND PROGRESSION. COULD SEE WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT DUE TO A 25-30 KT S-SSW LLJ WITH
COOL SSTS KEEPING THE MIXING TO THE OCEAN SFC FROM THIS LLJ
LIMITED. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A MIX OF WIND WAVES AND FINALLY AN
UNDERLYING SMALL SE SWELL EXHIBITING 8 SECOND PERIODS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. BY LATE
SUN INTO MON WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL BRING SEAS TO 3 TO 4 FT BY SAT NIGHT
WITH A FURTHER INCREASE AS WINDS PICK UP LATER ON SUN. SEAS UP
TO 4 TO 5 FT SUN NIGHT SHOULD REACH 4 TO 6 FT ON MON AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY TUES
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO
BRING SEAS DOWN TO 4 TO 5 FT ON TUES.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR JUST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NC
WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT. ALTHOUGH WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY NOT STRICTLY MEET THRESHOLDS,
ACCUMULATING DRY FUELS FROM THE LACK OF RAINFALL REMAINS A
DRIVING SOURCE FOR FIRE CONCERNS. THE STATEWIDE BURN FOR BOTH
NC AND SC REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/RGZ
FIRE WEATHER...DCH
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