025
FXUS62 KILM 281836
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
236 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS INCREASE ON SUNDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MID-LEVEL SOUTHEAST STATES SUBTLE RIDGE AXIS WILL APPROACH
FROM THE W TODAY AND REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LOOKING AT THIN
TO OPAQUE CIRRUS TODAY WITH PERIODIC ALTOCU POSSIBLE. COULD
SEE FEW/SCT CU/SCU AT 4.5K TO 6K FT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT
PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT
WILL KEEP A LID ON THE CU FIELD. TODAYS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S WITH A FEW 80+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL HOLD IN
THE 60S POSSIBLY ECLIPSING 70 BEFORE THE ADVENT AND INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE ALTOCU CLOUD SHIELD MAY DELAY
THE TEMPS FROM INCREASING EARLY ON BUT STILL SHOULD HIT
PRESCRIBED VALUES. A S-SSW LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THRU DAYBREAK SAT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED WITH LOWS A UNIFORM MID TO UPPER 50S AND ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT HELD AT BAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE AN OPAQUE CIRRUS
SHIELD, PREVENTING ANY DECENT RAD COOLING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AT 500 MILLIBARS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE A FOCUS OF WEATHER ON MONDAY. THE
DEEP MOISTURE REFLECTED IN THE MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO 1.5". THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD, AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTH FLOW WILL BE
ESTABLISHED. WITH WEAK LARGE- SCALE LIFT AND LOW INSTABILITY ON
SUNDAY, A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE COLD FRONT ADVERTISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE MODELS SHOW THE 300 MB
JET SLIGHTLY WEAKER NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE NAM BEST SHEAR OVER THE
AREA IS AROUND 00 UTC ON TUESDAY, AND THE CAPES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
750-1000 J/KG RANGE. THE MODEL'S DEPICTION OF THE CONVECTION
DIFFERS, WITH THE GFS SHOWING CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AT 00 UTC
TUESDAY AND THE NAM SHOWING MOST OF THE CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE
WEST. THE TIMING OF THE WINDS AND INSTABILITY DO NOT SEEM TO BE
ALIGNED WELL, SO CONFIDENCE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE EVENT IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 18Z SATURDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE, A VERY SMALL RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS
EARLY SAT AM DUE TO SHALLOW FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS AS DEWPOINTS
START TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
EARLY SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM MORNING
GROUND FOG SAT MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SUN
AFTN AND EVENING COULD LEAD TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MON FROM CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. VFR DOMINATES TUE.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD WITH NO BIG MARINE
CONCERNS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST REMAINING IN
CONTROL. THAT MEANS SOUTHERLY WINDS, ENHANCED A BIT AT TIMES UP TO
15-20 KT NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE AFTN/EVE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL MAINLY BE 3 FT OR LESS, BUT COULD
REACH 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OFF THE SC COAST DUE TO AN
INCREASING SE SWELL.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR JUST INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NC
WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM EDT. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY NOT STRICTLY MEET THRESHOLDS, ACCUMULATING
DRY FUELS FROM THE LACK OF RAINFALL REMAINS A DRIVING SOURCE FOR
FIRE CONCERNS. THE STATEWIDE BURN FOR BOTH NC AND SC REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/RH
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