003
FXUS62 KILM 282251
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
651 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS INCREASE ON SUNDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
WEST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SLIPS A BIT MORE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATING. THIS PATTERN WILL MEAN
GENERALLY INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS
SATURDAY NEAR 80 INLAND AWAY FROM THE COOLER COASTAL AREAS. MAY
SEE A BIT OF GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS EARLY SAT AM DUE TO
THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING. OTHERWISE, RAIN
CHANCES WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AS THEY ARE LESS
THAN 10% BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AT
SOME POINT, ESPECIALLY IN GEORGETOWN/WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES THIS
AFTN/EVE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH PEAK
HEATING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AT 500 MILLIBARS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE A FOCUS OF WEATHER ON MONDAY. THE
DEEP MOISTURE REFLECTED IN THE MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO 1.5". THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD, AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTH FLOW WILL BE
ESTABLISHED. WITH WEAK LARGE- SCALE LIFT AND LOW INSTABILITY ON
SUNDAY, A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE COLD FRONT ADVERTISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE MODELS SHOW THE 300 MB
JET SLIGHTLY WEAKER NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE NAM BEST SHEAR OVER THE
AREA IS AROUND 00 UTC ON TUESDAY, AND THE CAPES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
750-1000 J/KG RANGE. THE MODEL'S DEPICTION OF THE CONVECTION
DIFFERS, WITH THE GFS SHOWING CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AT 00 UTC
TUESDAY AND THE NAM SHOWING MOST OF THE CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE
WEST. THE TIMING OF THE WINDS AND INSTABILITY DO NOT SEEM TO BE
ALIGNED WELL, SO CONFIDENCE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE EVENT IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 18Z SATURDAY.
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE, A VERY SMALL
RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS EARLY SAT AM DUE TO SHALLOW FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS AS DEWPOINTS START TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
EARLY SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM MORNING
GROUND FOG SAT MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SUN
AFTN AND EVENING COULD LEAD TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER
CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MON FROM CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. VFR DOMINATES TUE.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD WITH NO BIG MARINE
CONCERNS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST REMAINING IN
CONTROL. THAT MEANS SOUTHERLY WINDS, ENHANCED A BIT AT TIMES UP TO
15-20 KT NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE AFTN/EVE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL MAINLY BE 3 FT OR LESS, BUT COULD
REACH 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OFF THE SC COAST DUE TO AN
INCREASING SE SWELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FARTHER EAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. BY LATE SUN INTO MON WINDS
WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL BRING SEAS TO 3 TO 4 FT BY SAT NIGHT WITH A FURTHER
INCREASE AS WINDS PICK UP LATER ON SUN. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT SUN
NIGHT SHOULD REACH 4 TO 6 FT ON MON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY TUES WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NW. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BRING SEAS DOWN TO 4
TO 5 FT ON TUES.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR JUST INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NC
WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM EDT. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY NOT STRICTLY MEET THRESHOLDS, ACCUMULATING
DRY FUELS FROM THE LACK OF RAINFALL REMAINS A DRIVING SOURCE FOR
FIRE CONCERNS. THE STATEWIDE BURN FOR BOTH NC AND SC REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/RH
FIRE WEATHER...
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