525
FXUS62 KILM 290556
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS INCREASE ON SUNDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
UPDATE
NO BIG CHANGES NECESSARY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
WEST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SLIPS A BIT MORE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATING. THIS PATTERN WILL MEAN
GENERALLY INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS
SATURDAY NEAR 80 INLAND AWAY FROM THE COOLER COASTAL AREAS. MAY
SEE A BIT OF GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS EARLY SAT AM DUE TO
THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AT 500 MILLIBARS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE A FOCUS OF WEATHER ON MONDAY. THE
DEEP MOISTURE REFLECTED IN THE MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO 1.5". THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD, AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTH FLOW WILL BE
ESTABLISHED. WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND LOW INSTABILITY ON
SUNDAY, A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE COLD FRONT ADVERTISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE MODELS SHOW THE 300 MB
JET SLIGHTLY WEAKER NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE NAM BEST SHEAR OVER THE
AREA IS AROUND 00 UTC ON TUESDAY, AND THE CAPES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
750-1000 J/KG RANGE. THE MODEL'S DEPICTION OF THE CONVECTION
DIFFERS, WITH THE GFS SHOWING CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AT 00 UTC
TUESDAY AND THE NAM SHOWING MOST OF THE CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE
WEST. THE TIMING OF THE WINDS AND INSTABILITY DO NOT SEEM TO BE
ALIGNED WELL, SO CONFIDENCE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE EVENT IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. THIN TO OPAQUE CIRRUS DECK WILL BE HERE FOR THE
DURATION. COULD SEE STRATOCU CLOUDS, JUST ABOVE MVFR, ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT/BKN CU, IN THE 4.5K TO
6K RANGE, TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS, MAINLY INLAND, THIS AFTERNOON.
INVERSION AROUND 800MB SHOULD PREVENT ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
CONTINUED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST FROM
THE OFFSHORE HIGH, WILL GENERALLY EXTEND INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NC-SC BORDER. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIND DIRECTIONS FROM
THE SSE-SSW. SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE AIDING THE HIER WIND SPEEDS AND THE
SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WIND DIRECTIONS. MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
MORNING SHOULD KEEP FOG IF ANY TO A MINIMUM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EACH
MORNING DUE TO GROUND FOG. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SUN
AFTN AND EVENING COULD LEAD TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. A BETTER CHANCE
OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COMING MON FROM CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. VFR DOMINATES TUE THRU WED.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD WITH NO BIG MARINE
CONCERNS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST REMAINING IN
CONTROL. THAT MEANS SOUTHERLY WINDS, ENHANCED A BIT AT TIMES UP TO
15-20 KT NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE AFTN/EVE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL MAINLY BE 3 FT OR LESS, BUT COULD
REACH 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OFF THE SC COAST DUE TO AN
INCREASING SE SWELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FARTHER EAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. BY LATE SUN INTO MON WINDS
WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL BRING SEAS TO 3 TO 4 FT BY SAT NIGHT WITH A FURTHER
INCREASE AS WINDS PICK UP LATER ON SUN. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT SUN
NIGHT SHOULD REACH 4 TO 6 FT ON MON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY TUES WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NW. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BRING SEAS DOWN TO 4
TO 5 FT ON TUES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RJB/RH
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