689
FXUS62 KILM 290753
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
353 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN, RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
OVERHEAD PROGGED TO SLIDE OFF THE SE STATES COAST THIS PERIOD.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE FA AT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT, LOOKING AT 1 MORE DRY DAY AS
WELL AS ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DAY/NIGHT. LOOKING AT
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS PUSH HIER DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SFC HIGH WELL OFFSHORE FROM NC COAST, WILL RIDGE
BACK TO THE WEST AND INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC-SC
BORDER. ATM ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT CAPPED MEANING DO
NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CU. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 80, EXCEPT
AROUND 70 FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING
ACROSS LOCAL SSTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD FOR
TONIGHTS LOWS, UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEPS OF THE FA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS THE MIDLEVEL
TROF MOVES CLOSER FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF THE ARKLATEX REGION QUICKLY MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND MOISTURE GETS DEEPER THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SUNDAY MORNING STARTS OFF DRY, BUT RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY
PICK UP FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S FOR MOST, WITH A FEW
PLACES ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION HAVING A SHOT AT 80 DEGREES. WHILE
THE INSTABILITY COMES DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES STILL REMAIN.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE A COLD FRONT THAT TRIES TO BRING SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE AREA MONDAY. THE SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A BIT
DIFFERENT THIS TIME AROUND, WITH MORE CAPE AND LESS SHEAR (USUALLY,
IT'S THE OPPOSITE). DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER, RICH MOISTURE FROM
THE SSW ALLOWS FOR PLENTY OF BUOYANCY. SBCAPE AND MLCAPE BOTH LOOK
TO CREEP UP INTO THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE
MISMATCHES IN THE TIMING OF THE BEST CAPE AND THE BEST SHEAR. THE
HIGHER SHEAR PARAMETERS DON'T COME IN UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, AND EVEN
THEN, THEY'RE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY COULD BE (BULK SHEAR MAY
STRUGGLE TO HIT 50 KTS). EVEN IF THE BETTER SHEAR IS REALIZED, THE
LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AT THIS POINT MEANS THAT THE INSTABILITY
COMES BACK DOWN.
ALL OF THIS TO SAY, THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY TO CONTEND
WITH. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS LOOK MORE FOCUSED ON WIND AND HAIL, WITH
TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND STRUGGLES TO PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EVEN SO,
THERE'S ENOUGH VEERING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DROP OFF THE RAIN
CHANCES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 50S.
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, LOSING ITS OLD
CHARACTERISTICS. IT THEN SURGES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
AGAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EVERYDAY, PARTICULARLY INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY TOWARDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS EASILY SHOOT UP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER
80S. EVEN AREAS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY SEE THE UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. THIN TO OPAQUE CIRRUS DECK WILL BE HERE FOR THE
DURATION. COULD SEE STRATOCU CLOUDS, JUST ABOVE MVFR, ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SCT/BKN CU, IN THE 4.5K TO
6K RANGE, TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS, MAINLY INLAND, THIS AFTERNOON.
INVERSION AROUND 800MB SHOULD PREVENT ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
CONTINUED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST FROM
THE OFFSHORE HIGH, WILL GENERALLY EXTEND INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NC-SC BORDER. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIND DIRECTIONS FROM
THE SSE-SSW. SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE AIDING THE HIER WIND SPEEDS AND THE
SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WIND DIRECTIONS. MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
MORNING SHOULD KEEP FOG IF ANY TO A MINIMUM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EACH
MORNING DUE TO GROUND FOG. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SUN
AFTN AND EVENING COULD LEAD TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. A BETTER CHANCE
OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COMING MON FROM CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. VFR DOMINATES TUE THRU WED.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM
THE HIGH'S CENTER WELL OFFSHORE FROM NC DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL GENERALLY MEANDER AND EXTEND ONSHORE
BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND MURRELLS INLET DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIND DIRECTIONS RUNNING SSW NORTH OF THE AXIS TO
SSE SOUTH OF THE AXIS. THE SFC PG WILL RELATIVELY HOLD AS IS
THRU THE PERIOD WITH WINDSPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OR 10-15
KT. NEARSHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, MAY OBSERVE 15 TO
20+ KT GUSTS DUE TO AN ACTIVE AND INLAND PROGRESSING SEA
BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT TODAY AND BUILDING 2 TO 4 FT
TONIGHT WITH A SE WAVE AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS DOMINATING THE SEAS
SPECTRUM.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY, PICKING UP IN SPEED. SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-
15 KTS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT, WITH GUSTS EASILY ECLIPSING 20 KTS.
SEAS AT MOSTLY 3-4 FT THROUGH THIS POINT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING 6 FT SEAS TO POSSIBLY BUILD IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST NC COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, BUT IT ISN'T A SLAM DUNK HERE. FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE, CREATING WESTERLY WINDS AT FIRST, BECOMING MORE VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. SEAS QUICKLY DROP BACK DOWN TO 3-4 FT
(IF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED, IT WOULD ONLY BE FOR A FEW
HOURS). EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KTS BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/IGB
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