917
FXUS62 KILM 291330
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ACROSS THE SE STATES AND
OVERHEAD PROGGED TO SLIDE OFF THE SE STATES COAST THIS PERIOD.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE FA AT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT, LOOKING AT 1 MORE DRY DAY AS
WELL AS ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DAY/NIGHT. LOOKING AT
INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS PUSH HIER DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SFC HIGH WELL OFFSHORE FROM NC COAST, WILL RIDGE
BACK TO THE WEST AND INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC-SC
BORDER. ATM ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT CAPPED MEANING DO
NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CU. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 80, EXCEPT
AROUND 70 FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING
ACROSS LOCAL SSTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD FOR
TONIGHTS LOWS, UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEPS OF THE FA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS THE MIDLEVEL
TROF MOVES CLOSER FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF THE ARKLATEX REGION QUICKLY MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER
OUT TO SEA. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND MOISTURE GETS DEEPER
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. SUNDAY MORNING STARTS OFF DRY, BUT RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY PICK UP FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 70S FOR MOST, WITH A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION
HAVING A SHOT AT 80 DEGREES. WHILE THE INSTABILITY COMES DOWN
SUNDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES STILL REMAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE A COLD FRONT THAT TRIES TO BRING
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA MONDAY. THE SITUATION APPEARS TO BE
A BIT DIFFERENT THIS TIME AROUND, WITH MORE CAPE AND LESS SHEAR
(USUALLY, IT'S THE OPPOSITE). DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER, RICH
MOISTURE FROM THE SSW ALLOWS FOR PLENTY OF BUOYANCY. SBCAPE AND
MLCAPE BOTH LOOK TO CREEP UP INTO THE 800-1500 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE MISMATCHES IN THE TIMING OF THE BEST
CAPE AND THE BEST SHEAR. THE HIGHER SHEAR PARAMETERS DON'T COME
IN UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, AND EVEN THEN, THEY'RE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THEY COULD BE (BULK SHEAR MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 50 KTS). EVEN
IF THE BETTER SHEAR IS REALIZED, THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AT
THIS POINT MEANS THAT THE INSTABILITY COMES BACK DOWN.
ALL OF THIS TO SAY, THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY TO
CONTEND WITH. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS LOOK MORE FOCUSED ON WIND
AND HAIL, WITH TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND STRUGGLES TO PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EVEN
SO, THERE'S ENOUGH VEERING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DROP OFF
THE RAIN CHANCES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, LOSING ITS
OLD CHARACTERISTICS. IT THEN SURGES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AGAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EVERYDAY,
PARTICULARLY INLAND. TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY EACH DAY,
PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS EASILY SHOOT UP
INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S. EVEN AREAS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY
SEE THE UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. THIN TO OPAQUE CIRRUS DECK WILL BE HERE FOR THE
DURATION. SCT/BKN CU, IN THE 4.0K TO 6K FOOT RANGE, TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS FROM MIDDAY THRU THE EARLY EVENING. INVERSION
AROUND 800MB SHOULD PREVENT ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH, WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC-SC BORDER.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIND DIRECTIONS FROM THE SSE-SSW.
SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT AT THE START INCREASING TO 10-15
KT LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE
AIDING THE HIER WIND SPEEDS AND THE SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WIND
DIRECTIONS. APPROACHING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE WEST WILL
REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK SUN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EACH
MORNING THRU MON DUE TO GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SUN AFTN AND EVENING WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MON INTO MON
NIGHT FROM CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. VFR DOMINATES TUE THRU WED.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM
THE HIGH'S CENTER WELL OFFSHORE FROM NC DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL GENERALLY MEANDER AND EXTEND ONSHORE
BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND MURRELLS INLET DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIND DIRECTIONS RUNNING SSW NORTH OF THE AXIS TO
SSE SOUTH OF THE AXIS. THE SFC PG WILL RELATIVELY HOLD AS IS
THRU THE PERIOD WITH WINDSPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OR 10-15
KT. NEARSHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, MAY OBSERVE 15 TO
20+ KT GUSTS DUE TO AN ACTIVE AND INLAND PROGRESSING SEA
BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT TODAY AND BUILDING 2 TO 4 FT
TONIGHT WITH A SE WAVE AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS DOMINATING THE SEAS
SPECTRUM.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY, PICKING UP IN SPEED. SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 10- 15 KTS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT, WITH GUSTS EASILY
ECLIPSING 20 KTS. SEAS AT MOSTLY 3-4 FT THROUGH THIS POINT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING 6 FT SEAS TO
POSSIBLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NC COASTAL WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, BUT IT ISN'T A SLAM DUNK
HERE. FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE, CREATING WESTERLY
WINDS AT FIRST, BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY. SEAS QUICKLY DROP BACK DOWN TO 3-4 FT (IF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED, IT WOULD ONLY BE FOR A FEW HOURS).
EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KTS BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/IGB
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