428
FXUS62 KILM 291846
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
246 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE ON
SUNDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME MID-LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SC, WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHOWER CHANCES
SPREADING INTO NC SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
INLAND CLOSER TO I-95, BUT CERTAINLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY/SHEAR. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPS WILL STAY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSE TO 60 AND HIGHS SUNDAY NEAR 80.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT SEA FOG WE DON'T THINK IT'S TOO LIKELY YET,
ESPECIALLY AS THE MODELS ARE USUALLY TOO QUICK IN DEVELOPING IT.
IT'S A BIT MORE LIKELY WE'LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-95.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AT 500 MILLIBARS, A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
SOUTHERN WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND EXIT THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE (1.5"+ PRECIPITABLE
WATER) WILL ADVECT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON MONDAY, AND THE INSTABILITIES ARE
IN THE 1000 J/KG PLUS OR MINUS 250 J/KG RANGE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40-KNOT RANGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
CONVECTION FORMING/MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING, BUT
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS WITH THE
TIMING OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND LIFT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
EVENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IN THE MID-LEVELS, THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL MODIFY INTO A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A DEEP TROUGH THAT CUTS
OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, BUT THE SYNOPTIC LIFT IS WEAK, AS
EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO STRETCH WEST
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
WEAKENING HIGH COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL YIELD
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. THE OTHER POTENTIAL CAUSES OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE FROM
LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME FOG TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW IN OCCURRENCE/LOCATION TO MENTION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EACH
MORNING THRU MON DUE TO GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SUN AFTN AND EVENING WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. A BETTER CHANCE OF
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MON INTO MON
NIGHT FROM CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. VFR DOMINATES TUE THRU THU BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY FROM SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WED/THU AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO
INCREASE A BIT.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD WITH NO BIG MARINE
CONCERNS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST REMAINING IN
CONTROL. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS,
ENHANCED A BIT AT TIMES UP TO 15-20 KT NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE
AFTN/EVE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 FT
OR LESS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT DUE TO AN INCREASING SE SWELL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR SUNRISE. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 4 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BUILD
TO 4 TO 5 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A 6-FOOTER IS POSSIBLE 15 TO
20 MILES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE FEAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LOW TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING -1.0 FT MLLW WILL CONTINUE AT LOW
TIDES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...IGB/RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/RH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page