870
FXUS62 KILM 300621
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
200 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
HUMID SOUTH WINDS TO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST, REACHING THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY.
UPDATE
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60 ALONG THE COAST
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING SHALLOW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP? THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING THIS
EXPLICITLY IS THE ARW WRF. I CAN THINK OF SEVERAL RADIATIONAL
FOG EVENTS IT HAS CORRECTLY IDENTIFIED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS
WHILE OTHER MODELS AND MOS SHOWED NONE. I'LL ADD A FEW PATCHES
OF FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF HORRY, GEORGETOWN, AND WILLIAMSBURG
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME MID-LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SC, WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHOWER CHANCES
SPREADING INTO NC SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
INLAND CLOSER TO I-95, BUT CERTAINLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY/SHEAR. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPS WILL STAY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT CLOSE TO 60 AND HIGHS SUNDAY NEAR 80.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT SEA FOG WE DON'T THINK IT'S TOO LIKELY YET,
ESPECIALLY AS THE MODELS ARE USUALLY TOO QUICK IN DEVELOPING IT.
IT'S A BIT MORE LIKELY WE'LL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-95.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AT 500 MILLIBARS, A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
SOUTHERN WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND EXIT THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE (1.5"+ PRECIPITABLE
WATER) WILL ADVECT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ON MONDAY, AND THE INSTABILITIES ARE
IN THE 1000 J/KG PLUS OR MINUS 250 J/KG RANGE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40-KNOT RANGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
CONVECTION FORMING/MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION OCCURRING, BUT
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS WITH THE
TIMING OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND LIFT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
EVENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IN THE MID-LEVELS, THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL MODIFY INTO A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A DEEP TROUGH THAT CUTS
OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, BUT THE SYNOPTIC LIFT IS WEAK, AS
EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
APPROACHING FROM THE SW, A DAMPENING UPPER TROF ACCOMPANIED BY
MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THRU TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL SIPHON ACROSS THE
AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DELAY IN THE PCPN
GENERALLY SPREADING FROM SW TO NE, AFFECTING THE SC TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THE NC TERMINALS MAINLY TONIGHT. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO DOMINATE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
THREAT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT FOR SC
TERMINALS AND MAINLY TONIGHT FOR THE NC TERMINALS. AT THIS POINT,
USED A PROB30 GROUP TO IDENTIFY THE POTENTIAL MVFR, MAINLY FROM
CEILINGS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH CONTINUES TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH FLOW GENERALLY 160-190
DEGREES AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING AND 10-15 KT WITH FEW GUSTS AOB 20
KT THIS AFTN/EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS INCREASES TO A MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
CEILING AND VSBY IMPACTS MON INTO MON NIGHT FROM CONVECTION
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A WFP WED.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY, HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD WITH NO BIG MARINE
CONCERNS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST REMAINING IN
CONTROL. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS,
ENHANCED A BIT AT TIMES UP TO 15-20 KT NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE
AFTN/EVE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 FT
OR LESS WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT DUE TO AN INCREASING SE SWELL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR SUNRISE. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 4 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BUILD
TO 4 TO 5 FEET MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A 6-FOOTER IS POSSIBLE 15 TO
20 MILES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE FEAR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 3 TO 4 FEET ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LOW TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING -1.0 FT MLLW WILL CONTINUE AT LOW
TIDES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...IGB/RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RJB/RH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJB
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