128
FXUS62 KILM 302002
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
402 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL LEAD DO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FIRST OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING ONLY SOMEWHAT WEAK SHOWERS. THE SECOND
MOVES ACROSS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED...ONCE AGAIN
MORESO ALONG THE COAST. THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE A BIGGER PLAYER AS
IT EXITS LEAVING BEHIND A STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS. AIRMASS RECOVERY
MAY TAKE SOME TIME AND NEAR TERM/HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
LIKE MOST OF THE AREA CONVECTION FREE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. IT
BEGINS TO GET INTERESTING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS...WEST TO EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK RESIDES
AND SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED RISK (3/5) FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN LINE OR CLUSTER AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE MAJOR ISSUE WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN CAMS. THE NAMNEST/RAP REMAINS THE
SLOWEST WITH THE LINEAR SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE THE NAM/HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY COULD BE
OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR BETWEEN GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HOLD
AROUND 50-70 KTS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE QLCS. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE QLCS AND BE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK TO SUPPORT SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK PVA ALOFT. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH COULD SET UP
WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETREATING HIGH. THEN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOISTURE LADEN PATTERN UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FIRST
SOMEWHAT MUTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR TO PERHAPS PERIODS OF IFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IN FACT MOST SITES ARE CHECKING IN WITH IFR
PREVAILING A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12 UTC MONDAY. LOWER
CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CULPRIT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS DRIER/MORE TABLE AIR
MOVES IN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE TUE THRU THU,
HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A WFP WED.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE OF COURSE COULD BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS MORESO TOWARD THE DEEP MORNING HOURS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS BUILDING TO
3-5 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO PRIMARILY THE SUSTAINED FETCH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BRIEF
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY FOR SE NC
WATERS, DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DUE TO OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/LEW
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