575
FXUS62 KILM 302351
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST THIS EVENING FOCUS ON OBSERVED TRENDS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE A LARGE CLUSTER OF
MODERATE-INTENSITY CONVECTION IS ROLLING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA, PARTICULARLY
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA, OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS, THEN ACROSS THE
CAPE FEAR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LOW SEA STRATUS HAS
ADVECTED ONSHORE AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM MYRTLE BEACH
TO SOUTHPORT. MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING TOO
MUCH FOG RELATIVE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, BUT I HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO
TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, OR WINDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FIRST OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING ONLY SOMEWHAT WEAK SHOWERS. THE SECOND
MOVES ACROSS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED...ONCE AGAIN
MORESO ALONG THE COAST. THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE A BIGGER PLAYER AS
IT EXITS LEAVING BEHIND A STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS. AIRMASS RECOVERY
MAY TAKE SOME TIME AND NEAR TERM/HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
LIKE MOST OF THE AREA CONVECTION FREE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. IT
BEGINS TO GET INTERESTING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS...WEST TO EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK RESIDES
AND SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED RISK (3/5) FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN LINE OR CLUSTER AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE MAJOR ISSUE WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN CAMS. THE NAMNEST/RAP REMAINS THE
SLOWEST WITH THE LINEAR SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE THE NAM/HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY COULD BE
OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR BETWEEN GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HOLD
AROUND 50-70 KTS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE QLCS. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE QLCS AND BE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK TO SUPPORT SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK PVA ALOFT. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH COULD SET UP
WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETREATING HIGH. THEN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A NIGHT OF ADVERSE AVIATION
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE
TIMING OF IFR AT EACH INDIVIDUAL AIRPORT, WE OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-1000 FOOT CLOUD CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL
AIRPORTS. THIS DEGRADATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR FIRST AT KMYR AND
KCRE THIS EVENING (00-03Z) AS LOW SEA STRATUS PUSHES ONSHORE,
BUT SHOULD SPREAD EVEN INLAND TO KFLO AND KLBT BY LATE TONIGHT.
(06-10Z)
LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MID TO LATE MORNING
(MODERATE CONFIDENCE) ON MONDAY BEFORE THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
CAN ERODE THEM FROM THE BOTTOM UP. VFR AND INCREASING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 16Z-19Z.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL REACH
KFLO AND KLBT BETWEEN 21Z-23Z MONDAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THE
SQUALL LINE WILL REACH THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY. A FEW
HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR MONDAY
EVENING (00Z TO 03Z TUESDAY) AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, AND ALSO DURING A POTENTIAL SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG FRIDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE OF COURSE COULD BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS MORESO TOWARD THE DEEP MORNING HOURS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS BUILDING TO
3-5 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO PRIMARILY THE SUSTAINED FETCH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BRIEF
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY FOR SE NC
WATERS, DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DUE TO OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...SHK/LEW
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