689
FXUS62 KILM 310544
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
A FEW SMALL, QUICK HITTING SHOWERS, ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH
ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
PRE-DAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS. 6Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
THE FIRST OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING ONLY SOMEWHAT WEAK SHOWERS. THE SECOND
MOVES ACROSS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED...ONCE AGAIN
MORESO ALONG THE COAST. THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE A BIGGER PLAYER AS
IT EXITS LEAVING BEHIND A STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS. AIRMASS RECOVERY
MAY TAKE SOME TIME AND NEAR TERM/HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
LIKE MOST OF THE AREA CONVECTION FREE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. IT
BEGINS TO GET INTERESTING LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS...WEST TO EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK RESIDES
AND SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED RISK (3/5) FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN LINE OR CLUSTER AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE MAJOR ISSUE WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN CAMS. THE NAMNEST/RAP REMAINS THE
SLOWEST WITH THE LINEAR SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE THE NAM/HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY COULD BE
OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. BULK SHEAR BETWEEN GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HOLD
AROUND 50-70 KTS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE QLCS. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH THE QLCS AND BE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK TO SUPPORT SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK PVA ALOFT. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH COULD SET UP
WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETREATING HIGH. THEN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS.
STARTING TO SEE POCKETS OF LOW CIGS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR WEST OF I-95. BUT HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL GET
ACROSS OUR AREA, AND WHEN, IS THE QUESTION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
LOW END MVFR CIGS (BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FT) DEVELOPING AT ALL
TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND
15/16Z AS DAYLIGHT AND A DRY SLOT AID TO ERODE THE STRATUS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MORNING,
PARTICULARLY AT KFLO AND MYR/CRE. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS.
AFTER MORNING STRATUS ERODES, WIDESPREAD VFR EARLY AFTERNOON. A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH I-95 AROUND 21-23Z AND
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE COAST WHILE LIKELY WEAKENING.
WITHIN THIS LINE, EXPECT BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY
STRONG WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG
FRIDAY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE OF COURSE COULD BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS MORESO TOWARD THE DEEP MORNING HOURS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS BUILDING TO
3-5 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO PRIMARILY THE SUSTAINED FETCH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BRIEF
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY FOR SE NC
WATERS, DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DUE TO OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...SHK/LEW
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