502
FXUS62 KILM 311946
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE LINE/MASS IS MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR A 430-5 PM
ARRIVAL MUCH AS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. THE AREA WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST AROUND 10 PM...AGAIN MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK REMAINS AS DESPITE STEADY CLOUD COVER FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY PUSHED INTO THE UPPER 70S.
EXPECT A SLOW CLEARING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND STALLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING AND THE PARENT SURFACE LOW
LIFTS INCREASINGLY FURTHER AWAY INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. AS MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE,
EXPECT THIS FRONT TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SUPPORTING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BEING LIFTED
OVER THE FRONT, EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A TRACE. THUS, POPS ARE KEPT BELOW
MENTIONABLE VALUES. DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE CLOUDINESS ENDS
UP BEING AND HOW SOON IT ARRIVES, LOW TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
(LOW-MID 50S) COULD END UP A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST AND
DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY (MID-UPPER 70S) CAN BE A LITTLE LOWER
THAN FORECAST.
OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THE WEAK WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE AREA, WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BEHIND IT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE FRONTAL INVERSION
AND ITS TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE IS ELIMINATED. STRATUS CLOUDS
EARLY WILL BE REPLACED BY PUFFY CUMULUS DURING THE MORNING AS
REMARKABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S ARRIVE ON
THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS, EXCEPT 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE COASTAL
AREAS.
FOR THE INTERESTED ENTHUSIAST: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THAT AN INCREDIBLY STRONG UPPER HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (500MB HEIGHTS LIKELY >590 DAM) IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH FORECAST 500MB HEIGHTS THAT EXCEED THE MAX OF
ALL FORECASTS FROM THE NAEFS AND EURO EFS DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR BETWEEN 1979-2009. THE RESULTING EURO EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX (EXAMINING PAST FORECASTS DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM
THE 2004-2024 PERIOD) INDICATES PROBABILITIES OF 0.8-0.9 FOR
INLAND AREAS TO SEE EXTREME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY. THUS,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY WILL OCCUR, BUT WHETHER THESE WILL ACTUALLY
REACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS, WHICH ARE IN THE LOW 90S
EVERYWHERE, IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE REMARKABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH DESCRIBED ABOVE AND ITS
ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH BOTH NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN
MUCH-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S THREATENING RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS EACH NIGHT AT
ALL CLIMATE SITES AND RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS BEING THREATENED AT
INLAND SITES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ECLIPSE
90F FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. WITH DEW POINTS AVERAGING OUT
TO THE MIDDLE 60S DURING THIS PERIOD, EXPECT DAILY CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY AND THAT SOMEWHAT HUMID FEELING TO BE IN THE
AIR, ALONG WITH COLD DRINKS CONDENSING A NOTICEABLE AMOUNT OF
WATER ON THEIR WALLS. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ABOVE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, SO POP-UP
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY, ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY, PUSHING THE UPPER HIGH AWAY
AND SENDING A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT OUR WAY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS APPROACHES LATER ON SUNDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE, PROVIDING A RESPITE FROM THE EARLY SUMMER
PREVIEW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE COASTAL SITES MOSTLY MVFR WITH SOME NOTED BREAKS INLAND
(VFR). THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING
ACROSS THE COAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS A BAND OF TSRA/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG
FRIDAY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WOBBLING AROUND SIX FEET AT
41013 THIS AFTERNOON MAKING THIS THE MOST MARGINAL OF MARGINAL
EVENTS REGARDING A HEADLINE. WITH A TIE IN PLACE WILL LET CONTINUITY
MAKE THE CALL AND REFRAIN FROM HOISTING A HEADLINE. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPS LATER
TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS DROP IN TIME TO 2-4 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A STALLED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY VEERING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERLY AND LANDING ON SOUTHERLY
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.
SEAS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE, AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A PERSISTENT 8 SEC SOUTHEASTERLY
SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/ABW
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