450
FXUS62 KILM 011415
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1015 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER TODAY, BRINGING OVERALL DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF LOW RAIN
CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACCOMPANYING ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SHARPEN UP THE DEW POINT GRADIENT AS A WELL-
DEFINED CLOUD BAND MARKING THE TRUE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LINGERING STRATUS TO GRADUALLY
MIX OUT AS INSOLATION INCREASES THROUGH THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK
AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THIS MORNING, SLOWLY DOWN AS IT REACHES THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED AS IT THEN MOVES TO THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH PARENT LOW WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS MORNING, THOUGH LINGER
ALONG NORTHEAST SC COASTLINE THROUGH LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. AS THE
STRATUS DISSIPATES, CLEAR SKIES IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S AS ANY CAA WILL BE VERY WEAK BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH SHALLOW NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL, AROUND 50 ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF CWA AND MID 50S FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS COASTAL HORRY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
VERY WEAK CAD WEDGE CREATES A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW-TO-MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NC TO NEAR 80 IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST SC. MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING WILL TRY TO INTERACT WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE PEE DEE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT MOST SHOULD STAY DRY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
WEDGE BREAKS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SUDDENLY, THE HEAT REALLY
TURNS ON. DEEP RIDGING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS BACK CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS, ALLOWING FOR A SUBSTANTIAL JUMP IN THE HEIGHTS
ALOFT. HIGHS EASILY SHOOT UP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S INLAND, UPPER
70S AT THE COAST. A FEW INLAND AREAS MAY HAVE A SHOT AT HITTING 90
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2025. A FRONT STALLS OUT WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, AND SHOULDN'T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR RAIN. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE, WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
LINGERING BETWEEN 588 AND 591 DAM NEARLY THE WHOLE TIME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS SPELLS OUT A VIRTUAL GUARANTEE THAT INLAND AREAS WILL
HIT THE 90S EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS THE MOISTURE
PUMPING IN, WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING SOLIDLY IN THE MID 60S.
SUMMERTIME CUMULUS DOT THE SKY WHILE YOU WIPE THE SWEAT OFF YOUR
BROW. DRY AIR HANGS ABOVE THE SUBSIDENCE LAYER, SO THE FORECAST
SHOULD STAY RAIN-FREE, THOUGH THE SEABREEZE WILL THROW SOME LIFT IN
THE GAME DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LOWS CONTINUE TO HANG IN THE MID 60S.
BROAD UPPER LOW SWEEPS THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL HELP BRING SOME ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SMALLER
UPPER LOWS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION AND THE MID SOUTH. THIS STOUT
SUPPORT BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT, WHICH MEANS SUNDAY
NOW LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AGAIN INLAND.
SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN COME BACK INTO THE FOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. CAA KICKS IN LATE MONDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKING MORE LIKELY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC
TERMINALS, BUT WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LBT WILL
BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH FLO
FOLLOWING AROUND 14Z. LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER AT COASTAL
TERMINALS A BIT LONGER BEFORE CLEARING OUT AROUND 15Z FOR KILM
AND 16-17Z FOR CRE AND MYR, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL FOLLOW STRATUS CLEARING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING, TURNING EASTERLY THIS
EVENING. MVFR STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD
(EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING) AS MOIST AIR OVERRUNS A WEAK WEDGE,
WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS INLAND NE SC.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SC, AS STALLED FRONT STARTS TO
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. PREDOMINANTLY VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING, BECOMING WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED AS IT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE STALLING. WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE
VEERING TO EASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 15 KT
TONIGHT. SEAS LINGER AROUND 3-4 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SE SWELL
REMAINING DOMINANT WAVE COMPONENT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY, AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THE WHOLE
PERIOD, PARTICULARLY BY SATURDAY. SEAS LINGER NEAR 3-4 FT, WITH A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL CLOCKING IN AT 8-9 SECONDS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...IGB/VAO
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