489
FXUS62 KILM 021801
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
201 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE
LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH ARRIVING FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACCOMPANYING ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE PEE DEE AND GRAND
STRAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ALONG THE CAPE
FEAR COAST, A CONFLUENCE BAND AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD, PROVIDING BRIEF PERIODS
OF RAIN IN PENDER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SEE UPDATED
TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE RESULT
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND IT ISN'T IMPOSSIBLE
THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REACH MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COOLER NUMBERS NEARER THE OCEAN.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST WILL SERVE AS THE CATALYST
FOR A HUMID, LATE-WEEK WARMUP. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. A
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY BEHIND A STRONG AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WARMER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. INLAND
AREAS HAVE A SHOT AT SEEING THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE HIGH OF THE
YEAR ON FRIDAY AND EACH DAY AFTER. THIS WOULD BE NEARLY A MONTH
BEFORE THE AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF MAY 2ND FOR FLO/LBT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 90 DEGREES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. COOLER ON
THE COAST AS A STRONG SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS, KEEPING COASTAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HUMID EACH
DAY WITH DEW POINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
INITIAL FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY. SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY INLAND COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT LIFTS NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE
STRONGER AND MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE SECOND WAVE AND THIS
SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A STALLED FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD, WITH
SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE THE END OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUOUS
RESTRICTIONS (AND MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CIGS) AT
FAR INLAND TERMINALS. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY WILL
SEE A TEMPORARY RETURN BACK TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR, WITH THIS MOST LIKELY AT THE SC
COASTAL TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH ILM COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE THIS
BREAK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH INSOLATION HELPING TO BREAK UP
THE CIGS BY AROUND NOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY
MORNING VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORINING FROM
THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD AS ABNORMALLY HIGH DEW POINTS MOVE IN. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY BRING
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... E WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KT WILL BECOME SE AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY,
AND BUILDING SEAS TO 6 FEET COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A
PROLONGED FETCH SOUTHERLY WINDS BUILDS THE WIND WAVE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...21/31
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