133
FXUS62 KILM 021942
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
342 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH
ARRIVING THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT, SUPPORTING CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. AS A STALLED FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT, EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE VEERING AND
END UP AT SOUTHERLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO EARLY-SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH, WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS
OVERHEAD RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. AFTER
STARTING OUT HUMID AND MOSTLY CLOUDY, SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO BREAK
THE UP THE CLOUDS BY MIDDAY AND BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW 80S NEARER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WATERS TO
OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUOUS FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH H5 HEIGHTS AND 850 TEMPS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND. POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN SPOTS INLAND, ESPECIALLY IN THE PEE DEE REGION. THE COOLER
OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE BEACHES AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER, ESPECIALLY WITH A DECENT SEA
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S IN A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS.
MAY SEE SOME MORNING FOG. SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME INDICATION OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE STUCK UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, MAINLY EARLY
MORNING, BUT THE DEEP DRY COLUMN ABOVE SHOULD MIX DOWN AND PROVIDE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INTERMITTENT SEA
FOG MAY AFFECT COASTAL LOCALES AS VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS
OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN IN A
DEEP S-SW FLOW BRINGING PCP WATER VALUES FROM AN INCH OR LESS
PREVIOUS DAYS UP TO 1.8 INCHES INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY SUN
EVENING. AS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASES INTO SUN EVE,
DO SEE SOME INCREASING CAPE INLAND, BUT IT REMAINS ELEVATED.
OVERALL, SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF SHWRS AND ISO
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO MONDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S ON MON DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCP AND BY MON NIGHT INTO TUES, MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE DOWN BELOW 50
MOST PLACES AND HIGHS ON TUES ONLY IN THE 60S. OVERALL, COOLER
AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO
MIDWEEK WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO A HALF INCH BY
TUES MORNING AND DROPPING FURTHER INTO WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S AND MAY EVEN SEE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES INLAND.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A STALLED FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD, WITH
SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE THE END OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUOUS
RESTRICTIONS (AND MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO LIFR CIGS) AT
FAR INLAND TERMINALS. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY WILL
SEE A TEMPORARY RETURN BACK TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR, WITH THIS MOST LIKELY AT THE SC
COASTAL TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH ILM COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE THIS
BREAK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH INSOLATION HELPING TO BREAK UP
THE CIGS BY AROUND NOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY
MORNING VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING FROM
THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD AS ABNORMALLY HIGH DEW POINTS MOVE IN. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY BRING
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO TONIGHT. AS A STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY THE
END OF THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCREASE TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT
BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY. WAVES WILL BE DOMINATED BY
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD AROUND 8 SEC AND
ACCENTUATED BY WIND WAVES OUT OF THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND UP
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MON NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY IN DECENT SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE BUT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS TO VEER TO THE W
BEHIND FRONT HEADING INTO TUES MORNING.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE OVER MOST WATERS THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL BUILD HEADING INTO SUN IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
PUSH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE SUN AND SHOULD LAST INTO MON NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW/31
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/ABW
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