373
FXUS62 KILM 270757
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
357 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TUESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A SHARP COLD FRONT/UNDULAR BORE CAN BE SEEN AS A MULTI-BANDED
THIN-LINED FEATURE ON RADAR AND AS A CLOUD BAND ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
HOUR WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIFTED OVER THE FRONT. TEMPS ARE ALSO WARMING AS
THIS INITIAL SURGE MIXES THE AIR AND PRESSURE INCREASES UNDER
THE FRONTAL WEDGE. LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL NC, A
SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW CAN BE SEEN AS WELL, AND THIS
WILL BRING THE REAL COLD ADVECTION WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TAKING
OVER LATE IN THE NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MOST OR ALL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
WITH A MIX OF MID-UPPER CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH
TODAY AS VORT MAXES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PASS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
TODAY, HELPING TO RELIEVE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY,
CAUSING GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE TEMPERED BY COLD ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM, WITH MID-70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NC, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME AREAS EVEN
GOING CALM. AMID MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS, A
RELATIVELY CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE AS GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TAKES PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MID-UPPER 50S ALONG IT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER EASTERN NC ON MONDAY
LEADING TO ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH A SUNNY SKY AND AFTN SEA BREEZE.
TEMPS RIGHT AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE APRIL...HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPR 70S WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREVIOUS THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK THIS PERIOD, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TUESDAY INCREASE TO THE LOW/MID 80S
WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. THURSDAY IS TRENDING A BIT DRIER AS WELL,
WITH MOST GUIDANCE SLOWER WITH THE RIDGE TRANSITIONING
OFFSHORE...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NW AREAS DURING
THE AFTN. BETTER RAIN CHANCES (30-40% POPS) THEN ARRIVE FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY TAKE LONGER TO CROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR
CIGS EXISTS, BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THIS IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THE SAME CAN BE SAID ABOUT THE RISK FOR
RAIN, AS IT APPEARS THE SOLE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE NC TERMINALS. WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THE RISK IS
ALSO TOO LOW TO MENTION AND WOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. THUS,
BEYOND ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION PEAKS, BUT
GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR WITH BOTH VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING, PUSHING THROUGH THE WATERS BEFORE SUNRISE.
A NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL FOLLOW 2-3 HRS BEHIND THIS
INITIAL WIND SHIFT, WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. OUTER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATER
ZONES MAY BRIEFLY SEE GUSTS JUST OVER 25 KTS, MAINLY BETWEEN
11-13Z, BUT THIS ANTICIPATED SHORT PERIOD AND SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2-4 FT THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO 1-3 FT FOR TONIGHT. THE WAVE
SPECTRUM WILL REMAIN A COMBINATION OF ESERLY 1-2 FT SWELLS WITH
A PERIOD OF 9 SEC AND 1-3 FT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND WAVES
WHICH VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS STEADY AT 2-3
FT, A COMBINATION OF PERSISTING E SWELL AND SLOWLY BUILDING S
WIND WAVES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
KING TIDES WILL LEAD TO HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THUS, A FEW ROUNDS OF
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER AROUND
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT
THE BEACHES AS WELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MAS/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ABW
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