358
FXUS62 KILM 280217
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TUESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE REGARDING TEMPS
AS DEWPOINTS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN ELEVATED THIS EVENING. STILL
EXPECT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 50 INLAND, EXCEPT POSSIBLY MID 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN BLADEN/PENDER COUNTIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY. N-NE WINDS ON THE FRONT END WILL ADVECT DRY AND COOL AIR
INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DOWN IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH MON. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MIX WITH THE
SUN TODAY, BUT SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL DROP OUT AFTER SUNSET WITH NEAR CALM WINDS LEADING
TO LOWS JUST BELOW 50 IN MOST SPOTS INLAND OF THE COAST. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE WINDS WILL START TO BECOMING
MORE ONSHORE WITH A HEALTHY SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS STRONG OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFFSHORE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S (UPPER 40S IN COLD SPOTS) DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS. WARM AND SUNNY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S. NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT, THANKS TO WAA, IN THE
UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE
ALOFT MAINTAINS INFLUENCE. LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL, IN MID TO UPPER 80S DURING THE DAY AND LOW 60S DURING THE
NIGHT. RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AND DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LEADING TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE 30-40% POPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. POPS LINGER
INTO SATURDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FRONT TIMING AND POTENTIAL
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO (SLIGHTLY)
COOLER TEMPS.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SE
NC AND NE SC AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
JUST A VERY LOW RISK FOR SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT, MAINLY LATE AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR WITH BOTH VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY. A
N-NE SURGE HAS SUBSIDED LEAVING WINDS MANLY AROUND 10 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. NEAR SHORE WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTIER AND MORE
EASTERLY IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD INTO MON, THE RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE E AND
ONSHORE WITH SIMILAR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR AFTN SEA
BREEZE NEAR SHORE. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH MON WITH
A LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL MIXING IN.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS GENERALLY
2-3 FT THROUGH THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 4 FT FRIDAY, COMBINATION
OF E SWELL AND BUILDING S WIND WAVE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
KING TIDES WILL LEAD TO HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS, PERIODS OF MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING ARE LIKELY ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER AROUND DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY IN SC.
SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RJB/RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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