203
FXUS62 KILM 281745
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AND SETTLING BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND
BERMUDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS. CONTINUED TO
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS, TO ACCOUNT FOR READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE ONSHORE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR TO SPREAD INLAND, ESPECIALLY OVER SC WHICH IS
FARTHER AWAY FROM CENTER OF HIGH AND WILL GET BETTER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM A HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS INCOMING RIDGE CONTAINS A SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE BETWEEN 500-400 MB, APPROXIMATELY 20KFT ALOFT, ASSOCIATED
WITH AN EXTENSIVE CANOPY OF CLOUDS FROM EAST TN ALMOST TO CAPE FEAR.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE WITH TIME AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VIRGINIA,
MAINTAINING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL MIXING UP INTO SOME VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MAY CRASH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S FOR AREAS OF NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LIKELY FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND DIRECTIONS
GRADUALLY VEERING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING
MARITIME INFLUENCE AND MODERATING HUMIDITY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ON THE BEACHES TO AROUND 80
ACROSS FLORENCE AND HARTSVILLE, VERY NEAR MOS CONSENSUS. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL THROUGH THE 50S,
LANDING NEAR THE LOWER END OF MOS CONSENSUS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND OVERALL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT TO A POSITION BETWEEN THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
BERMUDA ON TUESDAY, VEERING WINDS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY (<5F ABOVE NORMAL) TO THE MID-UPPER
80S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY (GENERALLY 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL). LOW
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 60F ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOW 60S
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING LATE IN THE WEEK AS ACTIVE
WEATHER ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER,
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER DRY DAY AS MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD BE STREAMING OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW-MID
80S NEAR THE COAST AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF WARM, MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR.
AFTER A MILD START WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S, FRIDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN INTO THE 6-6.5C/KM RANGE, ALLOWING FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP (SBCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE) AS
DAYTIME HEATING PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
ONCE AGAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER LAND AND SOUTH WINDS BEHIND
THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD YIELD ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO GET ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, BUT THE
COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT PASSING TO OUR NORTH. IN ADDITION, DUE TO THE
NIGHTTIME TIMING OF THE FRONT, EARLIER INSTABILITY WILL WANE
CONSIDERABLY AND REDUCE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
POPS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND THE
TIMING OF WHEN THE DRY AIR FILTERS IN. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN WHETHER SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY OR HAVE ADDITIONAL PRECIP
CONCERNS, AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPS AS WELL.
BY SUNDAY, SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE
ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL NORTH WINDS KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
COASTAL TERMINALS, WILL DROP OFF 00-02Z BECOMING NEAR CALM.
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG CREATING VISIBILITY
CONSTRAINTS AT KCRE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 14-16Z OUT OF THE SE TO S BUT SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KTS. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW TO SCT CU
INTO TUES AFTN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING IN GROUND FOG.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING SHOULD MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL
TEND TO SLOWLY VEER OUR WIND DIRECTIONS FROM NORTHEASTERLY THIS
MORNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, BUT WITH NO REAL INCREASE IN
SYNOPTIC WIND SPEED EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS,
EXCEPT 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO A POSITION IN BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS
AND BERMUDA ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EARLY ON
TUESDAY VEERING TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN DOMINATE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS THE
HIGH REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OFFSHORE. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK, EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS ON THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD STAY JUST SHY OF SCA
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS TO FEATURE A MORE ACTIVE
SEA BREEZE, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
GIVEN THE BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, SEAS HOLD IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY ESERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF
8 SEC, WHICH IS THEN TOPPED BY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WIND WAVES OUT
OF THE SOUTH. THIS CHANGES ON FRIDAY AS THE SWELL COMPONENT
WEAKENS IN FAVOR OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES REACHING
3-4 FT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LARGE TIDAL RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MONTH'S NEW MOON SHOULD
CREATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS IS LARGEST, I'M GOING TO GO AHEAD AND RAISE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ENCOMPASSING THE BEACHES
OF HORRY AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES. BEACHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA INCLUDING LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIDAL CAPE FEAR RIVER COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING AS WELL BUT CURRENT FORECASTS AREN'T A
LOCK FOR IMPACTS JUST YET.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054-056.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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