154
FXUS62 KILM 282251
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
651 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, SETTLING BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TUESDAY
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW FOR THE 00Z
TAFS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT WITH CENTER SETTLING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
TUES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM THE E-NE TO THE
SE-S WITH A RETURN OF DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES REMAINING LESS THAN
AN INCH. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS DIE
DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. THE DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD PRODUCE TEMPS DOWN AROUND 50 MOST
PLACES. HIGHS ON TUES WILL INCH UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
TODAY WITH MOST PLACES INLAND OF THE BEACHES TOPPING 80 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE.
IN THE MID LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE INCREASING IN
AMPLITUDE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL MEAN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVING A MORE TYPICAL LATE APRIL
FEEL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY THOUGH THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE AREA AS A SERIES OF
UPPER TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE FIRST WILL DAMPEN OUT AND
RIDE ABOVE THE OFFSHORE RIDGE. THE SECOND WILL DIVE INTO THE PLAINS
WITH MORE ENERGY DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY.
THE WEAK VORTICITY LEFT BEHIND BY THE LEAD WAVE COULD TOUCH OFF SOME
CONVECTION BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO ONLY SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES ON THE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE RANGE. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE SLATED FOR
FROPA WHICH NOW LOOKS LIKE EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY. MORE SEASONABLE AIR BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
A RETURN OF 50S AFTER SEVERAL NIGHTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE
REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS SEASONABLE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS SE NC AND NE
SC THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
VERY LOW RISK OF SHALLOW FOG CAUSING REDUCED VSBY LATE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING IN GROUND FOG.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WITH CENTER SETTLING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH TUES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM THE
E-NE TO THE SE-S. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE. SEAS WILL HOLD
IN 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. A MINOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL MIX
IN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD TAKES UP A CENTER OFFSHORE REMAINING WEST
OF BERMUDA. HIGH KEEPS THE WIND A BIT IN CHECK AS A FURTHER EAST
CENTER/MORE CLASSIC BERMUDA HIGH CAN BRING A TIGHTER GRADIENT
LOCALLY-AT THIS TIME WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-CRITERIA FOR ANY
HEADLINES. A SMALL INCREASE IN BOTH (STILL NO HEADLINES THOUGH) IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT CROSS THE WATERS
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE VEERING WINDS
AS THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH BUILDS INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LARGE TIDAL RANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MONTH'S NEW MOON SHOULD
CREATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BEACHES
OF SE NC AND NE SC AS WELL AS ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER
DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
LIKELY TUE NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER AND SC COAST.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJB/RGZ
MARINE...TRA/MBB/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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