717
FXUS62 KILM 291849
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
249 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MILD, JUST NOT AS WARM AS
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
QUIET WEATHER FEATURING UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO CONTINUE. IN
FACT TOMORROW WILL WIND UP A CATEGORY WARMER THAN TODAY WAS,
AWAY FROM THE OCEANIC INFLUENCE. OUR WAA HAS TAPERED SO THIS IS
AS MUCH AN EFFECT FROM THE MUCH WARMER START OFFERED BY
TONIGHT'S LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. AS DEWPOINTS KEEP
RISING WEDNESDAY IN SW FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS UNIVERSALLY
IN THE LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WED NIGHT THROUGH THUR NIGHT
QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN FOCUS BEING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LOWS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH NIGHTS. DAYTIME
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ~5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN ALOFT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGHEST THUNDER CHANCES
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
GREATER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ALOFT. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLES AND PAST
MODEL RUNS, SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER, WHICH WOULD
DISPLACE IT FROM THE TIME OF PEAK INSTABILITY. HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
AND BETTER FORCING LOOK TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
BE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MORE NEAR NORMAL, HIGHS IN
THE 70S. COLDEST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ONLY FM GROUPS WILL BE TO ADDRESS MINOR CHANGES IN WIND
DIRECTION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING IN GROUND FOG.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WIND WILL TEND TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SW WITH SOME INCREASE IN
SPEED HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH IS SUPPRESSED FROM THE
NORTH BY A BOUNDARY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT WITH THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS AND ALSO BY A HINT OF SE SWELL, THOUGH THESE LONGER
PERIOD WAVES WILL TEND TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD DUE TO OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH WILL
START TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO 15-20 KTS BUT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE
LATE IN THE PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
~2 FT TO ~4 FT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE SW WIND WAVE
BECOMING DOMINANT FRIDAY AT 3 FT AND 5 SECONDS. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MBB
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...ILM
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