132
FXUS62 KILM 301713
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
113 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BRING UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AROUND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE CAROLINA COAST AND
BERMUDA, SHIFTING SOUTHWARD JUST ENOUGH TO TURN OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING MARINE INFLUENCE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE BURGAW, WILMINGTON, AND
CONWAY WHICH SHOULD RUN 5-7 DEGREES HOTTER TODAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN CREEPING UP A LITTLE EACH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS AND EVEN DURING
PEAK MIXING SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 58-61 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE INCREASING THETA-E, WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE 700 MB
RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE.
FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND. THIS SHOULD BE ONE OF THE TOP 3 WARMEST DAYS OF
THE YEAR (SO FAR) IN FLORENCE AND COULD BE THE WARMEST IN LUMBERTON.
AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM OFFSHORE TO INLAND REACHING 15-18
DEGREES SHOULD FUEL A HEALTHY SEABREEZE WITH WINDS AT THE BEACHES
INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
STORMS COULD FIRE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN OUR MID LEVEL RIDGE.
THERE'S A LOW CHANCE ONE OF THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD APPROACH
ROBESON OR BLADEN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT FORECAST POPS
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST HREF.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM 62-65,
EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE PEE DEE REGION WHERE WINDS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO DIP TO CALM
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR
THURSDAY AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINS
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ABOVE ANY SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH LOW-MID 80S NEARER TO THE SHORE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP STEADY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GOING ALL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER, SHARPER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LEADING
TO A SLOWER COLD FRONT CONTINUES, WITH GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING A
CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SHORTWAVE, WHICH IS A KNOWN BIAS, BOTH THE CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
TREND IN THIS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED DIRECTION. THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND REMAINS ABNORMALLY
LOW, AND THOSE WITH WEEKEND EVENTS OR PLANS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES AS THIS SITUATION EVOLVES.
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MEANS THAT FRIDAY SHOULD
END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR ISOLATED POP-
UP SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOW-MID 80S NEAR THE
COAST ONCE AGAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE COLD FRONT IS,
FRIDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO END UP BEING DRY WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S AS STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN
LIGHT OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ON SATURDAY, THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT IS CRUCIAL AS THIS
WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF IT, OR IF ONLY ISOLATED POP-UP
CONVECTION DEVELOPS BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ARRIVES LATE
IN THE DAY AND/OR OVERNIGHT. POPS ARE HELD IN THE 40-60% RANGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON, BUT THIS PERIOD IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN
FUTURE UPDATES - DRIER IF THE FRONT IS FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE,
YET ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY WOULD BE IN STORE WITH A SLOWER
COLD FRONT, LEADING TO MID-UPPER 80S INLAND ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS
TIME, TEMPS ARE NUDGED A DEGREE OR TWO UP TO MARK THIS TREND,
WITH MID-80S NOW FORECAST INLAND.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN WHAT HAPPENS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD AS
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS TREND TOWARDS NOT JUST A SHARPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. DETAILS REGARDING ITS POSITION, MAGNITUDE, AND THE
SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND ITS CENTER WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON WHETHER WE SEE A CLEAN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER IN ITS WAKE OR PRECIP CHANCES
LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, POPS HAVE SEEN AN UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING
IN THE 20-40% RANGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS AS FINER-
SCALE DETAILS HOPEFULLY BECOME CLEARER. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING THESE DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW
WINDS WILL ABATE WITH SUNSET AND THEN PICK BACK UP WITH SUNRISE
TOMORROW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A LOW MODERATE PROBABILITY OF PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT, INCREASING
TO A MODERATE PROBABILITY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND
BERMUDA WILL SINK A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LOWERS PRESSURES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS WILL TEND TO VEER OUR WIND DIRECTIONS ABOUT 30 DEGREES
CLOCKWISE FROM YESTERDAY. COMBINED WITH TODAY'S SEABREEZE, WIND
SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 15-20 KNOTS NEARSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MARINERS THIS EVENING MAY SEE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DISTANCE TO THE NORTH, THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF SURF CITY WITH NO IMPACTS ACROSS OUR
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
MAINTAINING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH ENHANCED FLOW
NEARSHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS OVER
LAND. THE COLD FRONT SLATED FOR SATURDAY CONTINUES TO CARRY LOW
CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO DELAY ITS ARRIVAL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT WHEN
IT DOES ARRIVE, AND THE FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO
NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE THE APPROACHING FRONT TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DRIVES INCREASING WIND WAVES INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EVER-PRESENT ESERLY 8 SEC SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES DOMINATING THE WAVE SPECTRUM.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...TRA/ABW
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