437
FXUS62 KILM 010516
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
116 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL BRING UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SLIP FARTHER
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
MAY LINGER NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEK KEEPING CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS AROUND.
UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PUBLIC/MARINE FORECASTS. QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHALLOW FOG LATE WITH
ABOVE NORMAL LOWS, MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVERHEAD WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE
SURFACE REFLECTION. SOMETIMES THIS CAN CLEAR THE WAY FOR SOME
VORTICITY CENTERS AND RAIN CHANCES BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM
AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER. GIVEN THAT PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
BELOW 1.0" THIS SEEMS MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
NEAR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE TO PRECLUDE FOG IN ALL GUIDANCE. TOMORROW'S UNSEASONABLY WARM
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
DRY CONDITIONS COME TO AN END AS THE AXIS OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW
MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PULSE OF LIFT AND MOISTURE,
SUPPORTING LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY INLAND. ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN, THOUGH LOCALIZED LOW PRESSURE
ALONG IT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES HEADED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DECREASE CONFIDENCE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT COULD INTERACT WITH AND STALL THE FRONT IN OUR
AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME MORE NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS INLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AFFECTING KFLO AND KLBT.
PERIODIC MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
INCREASING TO A MODERATE PROBABILITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
MOVEMENT CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY UNCHANGING THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH A 2-4FT
SEAS COMPRISED OF A 4 SECOND WIND CHOP AND AN 8-9 SECOND SE
SWELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SW TO S FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO ~15 KTS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE E SUNDAY AND THEN NE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA SUPPORTING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
WILL INCREASE FROM ~2 FT TO ~4 FT SATURDAY WITH A DOMINANT SW WIND
WAVE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...MBB/LEW
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